Superpowers EQ1

A superpower is a country with the ability to project its dominating power and influence anywhere in the world. An example of a superpower is the United States (USA).

Emerging superpowers are countries with a large role in one or more superpower characteristics and with growing influence. Examples of emerging superpowers include China, Brazil, India, and Russia.

Regional powers can project dominating power and influence over other countries within the continent or region. Examples of regional powers include the United Kingdom, Germany, and France in Europe, as well as Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East, and South Africa and Nigeria in Africa.

There are six superpower characteristics: Economic, Political, Military, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Resources.

The economic characteristic of a superpower includes having a large GDP, a high percentage of international trade, and a currency used as a reserve currency. A large GDP creates influence as a potential market and as the home of TNCs (Transnational Corporations) which create Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

The United States has the world's largest total GDP, which is approximately $18.5 trillion, making it a significant economic superpower.

The political characteristic of a superpower involves the ability to influence the policies of other countries through the dominance of negotiations, both bilaterally and through international organizations.

Factors that might determine a country's voting power in international organizations include economic contribution, historical role in founding organizations (e.g., the United Nations), population size, and other forms of dominance in superpower characteristics.

Military power contributes to a country's status as a superpower by providing global reach to achieve geopolitical goals. Indicators of military power include army size, defense spending, nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the size of the blue water navy, being a major arms exporter, and presence in or leading international military organizations.

Russia has the most active nuclear warheads, with approximately 1790, while the United States is in second place with around 1750, contributing to their military power.

The cultural characteristic of a superpower involves the ability to influence the beliefs, values, ideology, and way of life in other countries. This is achieved through dominance in media, the spread of cultural products, and imposition of viewpoints in international agreements.

Examples of achieving cultural influence include the global spread of music, fashion, food, language, and religion. The USA has a high percentage of the world's 20 largest TNCs, which contribute to cultural influence.

The demographic characteristic of a superpower involves having a large population, which leads to a large diaspora and workers at TNCs, assisting economic power through a large market and economies of scale.

India has the largest population globally, with approximately 1.4 billion people, which contributes to its status as an emerging superpower.

The resources characteristic of a superpower involves control of access to physical resources such as energy and minerals, providing inputs for economic growth and military power.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), which controls a significant portion of the world's oil resources and influences oil prices and global politics.

A 'hyperpower' is a term used to describe a globally dominating superpower. e.g GB until 1910, USA later.

Hard power involves using military and economic influence, such as trade deals and sanctions, to force a country to act in a particular way.

Soft power is a more subtle form of persuasion that relies on a country's respect and appeal. It includes political persuasion (diplomacy) and cultural influence.

International rankings of soft power, such as those by Monocle magazine, often place the USA, UK, France, and Germany at the top. These rankings typically feature Western liberal democracies.

The political scientist Joseph Nye of Harvard University coined the terms "hard power" and "soft power" in 1990.

Joseph Nye argues that the most successful countries in the 21st century are those that combine hard and soft power into a smart power approach, which involves a combination of coercion (the 'stick') and attraction (the 'carrot').

Mechanisms for maintaining power range from hard power (such as military force) to soft power (such as diplomacy and cultural influence). Trade agreements and selective development aid lie somewhere in between.

Hard power, which includes threats of force or military action, can be expensive and risky.

Relying solely on hard power can lead to the loss of allies and moral authority, as others may view military action as unnecessary or illegal.

Soft power depends on a country having a respected culture, values, and politics, which may persuade some countries but not others.

Soft power, when applied effectively, is low cost and can lead to the creation of alliances and friendly relations, potentially spreading to other countries.

An example of hard power used by the USA is the organization and leadership of the coalition that expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait in the First Gulf War in 1991.

The UK's soft power includes diplomacy, a large network of diplomats and embassies, moral authority, the BBC World Service, cultural exports like films and literature, and its significant presence in international finance, banking, and law through the City of London.

In the past, military force and hard power were the common mechanisms for achieving and maintaining power.

In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the idea that power came from controlling vast land areas was important.

The British geographer Halford Mackinder produced the Heartland Theory in 1904.

The Heartland is an area of eastern Europe and central/northern Asia, bordered by the Himalayas, the Russian steppes, and the Arctic. It is characterized by physical barriers that make it difficult to invade.

The Heartland Theory influenced countries like the USA, UK, and other European nations to believe that Russia needed to be 'contained,' preventing it from expanding outward by taking over new areas close by.

The Heartland Theory reinforced the geostrategic idea that control of physical resources, including land and mineral wealth, was important for maintaining power.

In the 21st century, modern military technology, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, can penetrate deep into another country's territory, making size less of a protective factor. Additionally, physical resources are traded internationally, reducing the need to control them domestically. War and conflict are also less accepted as means of gaining power in the modern era.

Soft power involves gaining influence and maintaining power through economic and political alliances. In the 21st century, soft power has become more common as countries create these alliances to exert influence globally.

The USA invaded Iraq in 1991 and again in 2003, partly to secure oil supplies, showcasing the use of hard power.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine/Crimea in 2014, claiming to be protecting ethnic Russians, demonstrating the application of hard power. On the 24th of February 2022, Russia started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The imperial era dominated by empires occurred from 1500 to 1950.

European powers such as Spain, Portugal, Britain, France, and Germany were involved in conquering land in the Americas, Africa, and Asia during the imperial era.

The development of empires relied on powerful navies, large armed forces, government-owned businesses for resource exploitation, fleets of merchant ships, and people from the home country to act as the government and civil service in the colonies.

Empires were maintained directly by force, and attempts by conquered people to rebel against the colonial power were brutally suppressed.

Britain had the largest empire, and it reached its peak in 1920 when it controlled 24% of land globally.

Empires generally came to an end in the period from 1950 to 1970. European countries granted independence to their colonies because the costs of maintaining them became too high as Europe rebuilt after World War II.

Since 1950, China has effectively acted as a colonial ruler of Tibet and has brutally suppressed dissent during rebellions by Tibetans in 1959 and 2008.

Multi-faceted, indirect control, including political, economic, military, and cultural aspects, has become more important due to factors such as the Cold War era and the emergence of China as a potential rival to the USA's hegemony.

Even during the imperial era, there were attempts to control colonies using mechanisms other than the military. In British India, English culture was encouraged, including English schools and language, competitive sport (cricket), and dress.

Today, no superpower or emerging power has a significant empire. As a result, control of other places and people has to be indirect.

Examples of political mechanisms for indirect control include dominance in international decision-making bodies like the United Nations, G7, and World Trade Organization, where some countries have disproportionate influence.

Military power in indirect control involves the threat of large, powerful armed forces with global reach. Strategies include selective arms trading, providing weapons to key allies while avoiding arming potential enemies.

Economic alliances are created through trade deals and trade blocs, fostering interdependence between like-minded countries and promoting economic influence as an indirect means of control.

Culture is used as a tool for indirect control through global media, arts, culture, and global Transnational Corporation (TNC) brands to spread a country's ideology, beliefs, ideas, and values through consumer culture.

During the Cold War era, the USA and USSR sought allies through military alliances (e.g., NATO and Warsaw Pact), foreign aid to buy support, and support for corrupt regimes in exchange for their backing.

Neo-colonialism is an indirect mechanism where Western nations continue to control their ex-colonies in the developing world. It includes debt-aid relationships, poor terms of trade, and the loss of productive people to developed countries.

The rise of China has led to accusations of neo-colonial actions in Africa, as well as challenges to the hegemony of the USA and former colonial powers (France and Britain) in the region.

Three patterns of power include uni-polar (one dominant superpower), bi-polar (two opposing superpowers), and multi-polar (many broadly equal powers with regional influence but less global influence).

Patterns of power have changed over time, with examples including the British Empire in the 1800-1919 period (uni-polar), the Inter-war period of 1919-1939 (multi-polar), the Cold War between the USA and USSR from 1945-1990 (bi-polar), and the globalized era led by the USA from 1990-2030 (uni-polar).

The future patterns of power after 2030 are uncertain and could be uni-polar, bi-polar, or multi-polar, impacting geopolitical stability.

A uni-polar world is often considered more stable as there is one dominant superpower. However, sustaining hegemony can be costly, and the dominant power may become involved in various global issues.

A uni-polar world can provide stability, but the costs of being a hegemon can be high. The example of the USA as 'the world's policeman' involves involvement in multiple trouble spots, which may increase stability but also comes with challenges.

Bi-polar situations like the Cold War involve a tense stand-off between opposing superpowers and can be described as 'scary but stable.' However, there were occasions during the Cold War where the USA and USSR came close to a 'hot' war, increasing the risk.

The multi-polar world during this period had no dominant power, which some argue created a power vacuum that allowed the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, as no country was prepared to stop them.

After 2030, the world could become bi-polar (e.g., USA and China) or more multi-polar (e.g., USA, China, India, EU), which would have a significant impact on geopolitical stability.

Emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC), and other G20 members are considered increasingly important to global economic and political systems. They are also significant in global environment governance, particularly in the context of the UN Climate Change Conference.

The most likely rival to the USA's current hegemony is China. China's potential as a rival stems from its huge human resources, significant economic growth since 1990, global engagement, and military ambitions, including the development of a blue water navy.

Europe's and the USA's share of world GDP has been in decline since about 1945. In contrast, China and India, after declining until about 1960, are becoming increasingly significant to the global economy, and this trend is expected to continue.

Emerging powers in the near future are likely to demand more say in global organizations like the United Nations and have more influence in global financial decision-making at institutions like the World Bank, IMF, and WTO. They may also play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response as their military capacity grows.

Emerging powers, including the BRIC countries, are responsible for a significant portion (42%) of global carbon dioxide emissions. Their involvement in global environment governance agreements is crucial to addressing climate change, unlike the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which primarily involved developed countries.

China has strengths such as being the 2nd largest GDP, a powerful manufacturing economy, and growing military power and technology. However, it also faces weaknesses including an ageing population, reluctance to engage with global problems, and environmental issues.

India is the 7th largest GDP and has strengths including a youthful population with demographic potential and global leadership in IT technology. Weaknesses include widespread poverty, poor energy and transport infrastructure, and a lack of water resources.

Brazil, the 9th largest GDP, boasts strengths like vast natural resources and farming potential, but it faces weaknesses such as economic boom and bust cycles and limited military strength.

Russia, with the 12th largest GDP, has strengths like a powerful, nuclear-armed military and large oil and gas reserves. However, it struggles with difficult relations with the rest of the world and an ageing population.

Japan, the 3rd largest GDP, has strengths like a technologically advanced economy and global TNCs. However, it deals with weaknesses including an ageing, declining population and slow economic growth since 1990.

Mexico, the 15th largest GDP, has strengths as an advanced economy and part of NAFTA but faces a poor reputation for crime and corruption.

Nigeria, the 26th largest GDP, has strengths like untapped natural resources and a vast population with growth potential. However, it deals with weaknesses such as deep-seated poverty and internal conflict.

Countries with ageing or declining populations, like Russia, Japan, some EU countries, and even China, face challenges in paying for increasingly costly healthcare while their workforce shrinks. Shortages of physical resources may affect countries like India, while pollution could stall the growth of others like China.

Can be used to help explain changing patterns of power. 

Modernisation Theory, by W. W. Rostow, suggests that economic development begins when certain preconditions are met, including modern infrastructure, education, banking, and effective government.

Dependency Theory, by A.G. Frank, argues that the relationship between developed and developing countries is one of dependency, preventing economic progress. It attributes this dependency to neo-colonial mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed nations.

World Systems Theory, by Immanuel Wallerstein, views the global system in terms of core, semi-periphery, and periphery nations. It does not see the world as merely developed versus developing but rather as a global system with emerging economies as semi-periphery nations.

Modernisation Theory is useful in explaining how some countries become wealthy. Dependency Theory highlights the dependency relationship between developed and developing countries. World Systems Theory fits well with the current patterns of developed, emerging, and developing countries. None of these theories are especially good at explaining why some countries become superpowers.