Hurricane Prediction

• satellites and radar allow us to spot tropical cycles days to weeks before they will strike an area

• however, we’re only making predictions about the exact path they will take because this can change

National Hurricane Center Track Forecast Cone

• possible track of the center of the tropical cyclone

• based on the current trajectory and historical data

• cone gets larger the farther into the future you project

Hurricane Preparedness

• advanced warning means that deaths due to hurricanes has dropped

• general guidance is to NEVER ride out the storm

• evacuate people inland when satellite shows a hurricane is coming

• population of coastal areas is increasing

  • makes it harder to evacuate large numbers of people quickly

  • gridlock

  • 110 evacuees died in Hurricane Rita in Texas (2005) in a traffic jam

• some cities could take up to 3 days to evacuate

  • 50-60 hours for Fort Myers, Florida, 30-39 hours for Miami/Fort Lauderdale

• safe evacuation may not be possible with the increased population

• if not evacuating, you should:

  • move away from the water

  • hide from the wind