Superpowers: Key Facts and Case Studies

→ Countries Laying Claim: Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, China (all use EEZ to draw borders bar China)

What is China Doing?

expanding military sphere of influence by building/expanding islands + implementing radar technologies, military equipment and runways onto them

→ HARD POWER

Why is China Doing it?

• 190tril ft³ of natural gas + 11bil barrels of oil → use + sale

  • would increase political influence → controlling energy security of other countries

• 10% world’s fisheries

• 30% world’s shipping trade runs through them to economic markets of SE Asia

Defining International Waters

Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ):

• exclusive rights to resources and trade within the EEZ (sovereign territory)

  • 200 nautical miles from coast

• outside EEZ = international waters (contested areas)

• UNCLOS, 1973, agreed to by UN members

9 Dashed Line

• China’s historical claim

  • have 90% of South China Sea (as after WWII Japan lost control)

• Despite fact other countries + legally through the UN (of which China is a member) follow EEZ

  • BUT China’s claim before UNCLOS

  • YET when China taken to UN criminal court, ruled in favour of Philippines>China (no action yet though)

Spratly Islands

→ China wants claim

How:

• building islands + installing military bases

• threat of force (hard power) → when US destroyer ship (global policemen) sailed 12 miles off, China warned with own destroyer

• Cabbage strategy

  • surround a contested island with ships

Why:

• To expand their EEZ

  • would mean control passage of other countries’ vessels, trade, and resources that flow though

• Heart of China sea = best place to do that

US Involvement

• Don’t want to risk conflict with China

• Yet don’t want China to threaten allies

  • e.g., the Philippines (key to US influence there)

• Plus, China one of biggest threats to superpower status

= using aircraft to fly in international airspace but while maintaining presence + gaining info

→ hard power

• 800 military bases

• 37% global military spending → largest annual defence budget (2009 = $515bil)

  • = only US able to spend enough on all branches of military to effectively deploy its power globally

• Post-WWII only one with nuclear weapons

  • = able to make UN

• Cold War

  • created NATO (in fear of USSR’s expansion into Europe)

  • formed unlikely alliances across world (most remain)

  • many military bases across world (largely supported by presidents bar Trump)

• Not always on top

  • 2008 = 2^nd largest army (1.4mil) after China (2.3mil)

  • Russia more nuclear weapons → 4700 vs US’ 4500 (2022)

• BUT still enough to end human life

  • = still effective, global hard power

• Bretton Woods System (US largely influential)

  • IMF

  • World Bank

• $ = global reserve currency

  • key commodities priced in dollars = cheaper for US to buy

  • cheaper for US gov to borrow money as $ held in large quantities by other govs/companies

• Dominance of largest companies (important as TNCs are the architect of globalisation)

  • 2010 = 162 of Global Fortune 500 → total worth $8.7mil

  • disproportionate investment into US world cities (e.g. NY, LA, SF)

• Businesses focus m selling to US consumers

  • = personal consumption makes 70% of US economy

• Cold War

  • Installation of many pro-US regimes (e.g. Nicaragua)

  • Diego Garcia, military base → countered Soviet influence in Indian Ocean by enabling US to maintain control (can police sea lanes for oil transport in Middle East)

• Wide-spread international territory

  • Diego Garcia military bases (centrally located + covers 6km)

  • 1800s gained lots of territory (including abroad) → Alaska, Hawaii, Guam (‘annexation of foreign locations’)

→ soft power

• Promote the American Dream

• Values: individualism, consumerism, equality before the law, democracy

• Spread through TNCs (Coca Cola), art (Andy Warhol), music (Taylor Swift)

• Means don’t have to use hard power to spread their values as most find attractive due its global reach

An unchallenged superpower, dominant in all aspects

→ USA: 1990-2010

• (ends 2010 due to rise of competition for power, China)

→ UK: 1850-1910

• (height of British Empire)

US-Iran Sanctions

• Trump’s disagreement with Iran’s nuclear deal = harsh economic sanctions

  • formed after distrust arose (e.g. Iran supporting external conflicts and terrorists organisations) to refocus Iran on trade

  • US don’t want Iran to get nuclear weaponry

• No buying $, no trading gold, and oil restrictions

→ lead to protests in Iran and the gov with limited tools to aid themselves

UK, USA, France Air Strikes on Syria

• 4 RAF tornados sent to target chemical weapons depots (supposedly) from UK after alleged use of chemical weapons from Syria’s gov against civilians in 2018

• Trump spoke against Syria’s allies (inc. Iran)

• Russia supported Syrian gov as Western powers interfering with their governance → forming political allies

Trudeau Criticises Trump After G-7 Summit

• Trump accused Trudeau of undermining peace talk with North Korea

• Trump refused to sign G7 agreement (like usual, however)

• Trump wanted to impose tariffs (for example, on Canada) to preserve own industries (e.g. aluminium and steel)

  • trade protectionism

  • could’ve harmed alliance with Canada

Trudeau Criticises Trump After G-7 Summit

• Despite Trump’s accusations of Canada undermining peace talks with North Korea + threatening economic sanctions, Canada displayed moral authority

  • Trudeau said ‘Canadians are polite but won’t be pushed around’ → mature statement, taking the high ground

→ if control heartland, control world island, influence the world

→ world island at time of creation = central Asia

• Created 1904 → lots of European powers

→ based on premise that control over land = political power

→ linked to policies of containment:

• attempts following WWI to limit Germany expanding territory

• post WWII/Cold War attempts of allies to contain USSR expansion into W/S Europe

• Truman Doctrine

→ Theory says Russia should be global power

Physical Geography?

Protected from Interference:

→ heartland’s power partly relies on inaccessibility to prevent invasion

• historical failures to invade Russia on land:

  • Operation Barbosa 1941 (Hitler)

  • hard to navigate due to climate (cold, Siberia) + relief (mountainous → The Ural)

  • huge distances for military force and supply lines to go across

• by sea:

  • winter = Artic Ocean + Baltic Sea frozen

  • ice free Black Sea narrow straits

Not Protected from Interference:

• protected largely from physical interference, not political interference

  • actions widely considered to break international law (e.g. Ukraine) = political and economic sanctions from EU, USA, other ‘Western’ countries

Closer China + Russia threaten USA’s Status?

Yes:

• both in the heartland = increased control world island = threaten USA’s world influence

• size + access to resources could enable them to become dominant global actors

  • Russia 30% world’s natural resources

• formally strengthening relations since 2000s:

  • cooperating through BRICs forum since 2009

  • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation since 2001

  • $110bil bilateral trade in 2019 (lots)

  • Russia key player in China’s BRI → good trade links

  • China’s political allies in SE Asia + Africa

No:

• intense, historical rivalry from 1950s-80s between Chinese leader Zedong and Soviet leader Khrushchev

  • different opinions on what communism should be

It’s Rise

→ exploration and sea power

• Royal Navy dominated seas 1700-1930 → military, hard power

= established trade routes

• good economic relations = wealth from trade

→ peak size: 13.7mil sq miles

Controlling Colonies

→ politically

• collaboration of Indian Princely States

→ culturally

• acculturation

  • British traditions (e.g. cricket) and religion introduced

→ militarily + economically

• British military personnel, civil servants, entrepreneurs emigrated to India

• ‘modernised’ India → built extensive rail network (enabling imports + efficient movement of troops)

It’s Fall → Uni Polar to Bi/Multi Polar

Internal Pressures:

• economic decline

  • overspent on wars (WWII bankrupted)

• loss of military influence

  • beaten in Europe + Asia (required aid of USSR and USA)

• loss of colonies (demand for self rule)

  • fought allies with own independent colonies → National Liberation movements

External Pressures (rise of other powers):

• USA only one not devastated after WWII = became economically dominant

• USA military power → military spending more than 9 next largest spenders

Strategic Alliances

• USA + USSR spreading global influence by offering aid to developing countries

Aid

• with conditions to spend a certain way to fit power’s ideologies

  • e.g. IMF + Marshall Aid

TNCs

• FDI = big profits

Terms of Trade

• developing countries export raw materials cheaply vs developed sell manufactured goods for higher price

  • Dependency Theory

Global Finance + Debt System

• developing pay huge sums in debt to developed

  • loans through IMF/World Bank

Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs)

• countries wanting debt relief must apply to World Bank + IMF = loss of some economic sovereignty

  • e.g. Jamaica

→ model for the international division of labour in East Asia, stating Asian nations will catch up with West’s development

→ hardest for the first nation to develop further, then easier for rest

• outsourcing/offshoring of manufacturing from Japan to NICs = opportunities for growth/investment (FDI) and associated positive multiplier effect

  • = continuous movement of industry from the more to less developed nations

• Lead Goose = Japan

• Second Tier = NICs (‘Asian Tigers’ → Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan)

• Third Tier = Malaysia, Thailand

• Fourth Tier = China, Vietnam

→ 5 Stages of Development

• USA + UK = 5

• China/India = 3-4

• Ethiopia = 1-2????

→ ‘satellite’ countries provide goods/services to core countries (cheap commodities + market for manufactured goods)

→ core countries control development of developing nations by setting prices, interfering in their economies (e.g. IMF/China FDI in Africa), and using economic/military aid to ‘buy’ loyalty

Core:

• British Empire

Periphery:

• Colonies (maintained by neo-colonialism)

→ introduces idea of semi-periphery

• core no longer process raw materials, semi do and trade to core AND periphery

Core:

• USA, UK, W. Europe, Australia

Semi:

• India, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Russia, China

Periphery:

• N. Africa

Purpose

- Collective security: if one country is attacked the attacker will face the retaliation of several countries = meant to reduce military attempts

- Enhances and maintain superpower status as it makes it harder for them to be attacked so their ideology is protected + more limited military alliances (containing countries with their same ideology) allow superpowers such as US to act through them unilaterally or with a ‘coalition of the willing’  instead of larger alliances such as the UN (can complete their own agenda more easily as Russia/China’s vetoes limit)

Examples

NATO:

- formed in 1949, now has 31 member states

- account for most of the world’s military capability (including nuclear)

- enhances US’ superpower status as combines their own military strength with strength in numbers

·       14 air force bases

·       USA's 6th fleet is in Italy

• since 1980s USA increasingly acting through NATO>UN

  • Russia’s/China’s vetoes limit

• despite US vast firepower, NATO important for ‘strength in numbers’

USA + Other Alliances:

- ANZUS Treaty (Australia + New Zealand)

- mutual defence pacts with Japan, S. Korea, Philippines

- naval and air force bases across globe = true global reach

• The USA and its military allies spent $966 billion on their militaries in 2015, or 58% of global military spending.

Eastern Alliances:

• Russia’s military alliance: Collective Security Treaty Organisation

  • consists of former USSR republics

• Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

  • set up 1996 between China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

  • a strategic partnership in Asia broadly against ‘western liberal democracy’

  → could become more geopolitically important and create a powerful Eastern rival to NATO

  • 2010 involved 5000 troops from member countries

Limitations

NATO:

→ could influence superpowers such as the US to act less diplomatically due to their membership in many military alliances, especially NATO, as it gives them the power to act unilaterally, outside of the UN that requires agreement between countries (especially the big 5 as they can veto)

• for example, US acting unilaterally through NATO for 2003-2011 Iraq War

SCO:

→ currently security and economic co-operation organisation > true military alliance

Purpose

→ trade blocs are designed to make trade cheaper and easier between members by removing tariffs and quotas

• countries apart of many trade agreements increase their superpower status as they have guaranteed import and export of goods and services with great trade links

→ allow superpowers to force their agendas across the world (large blocs)

→ trade blocs support non-members with free-trade agreements

• Norway and Iceland have a free-trade agreement (EFTA) with the EU

→ free-trade agreements within trade blocs (e.g. EU, USMCA, ASEAN) encourage economic interdependence:

• free import/export taxes and tariffs, TNCs can operate as truly international entities moving physical, humans and finical resources anywhere within the bloc

• work sees easier to move between countries esp. EU freedom of movement part of agreement

• revenues of TNCs and smaller businesses that supply the highest when overall trade bloc health is good

Examples

In West:

Trans-Atlantic Relations:

• Trump faded hopes of free trade agreement with EU, BUT future bilateral agreement USA + UK possible

• Trump questioned relevance of NATO (economic loss)

• Biden may chose to ‘reset; EU + UK relations

→ overall: Trans-Atlantic geopolitical ties weakened recently

Trade Blocs:

• EU (27 member states)

• NAFTA (USA, Mexico, Canada)

In East:

Trade Blocs:

→ ASEAN

• founded 1967

• members: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam + other SE Asian countries

• 2009 became trade bloc (inc. Australia + NZ)

  • free trade agreements with China, South Korea, Japan, and maybe EU in future

Limitations

• with increased economic interdependence comes demands for political stability and security so without these problems occur (this is ensured through military alliances)

• more expensive and difficult to trade with other countries outside the trade bloc or to trade as a country outside a trade bloc → slower

• development (volume of trade is restricted)

• disproportionate influence within trade blocs?

→ cooperation and agreements need to be made to combat climate change by reducing carbon emissions

• e.g. EU emissions on a downward tend (per capita) as bloc pushed for global agreement on emission reductions

  • signing of legally binding emission reduction targets at COP21 in Paris, 2015

Purpose

→ Set up in 1945, along with other IGOs, to establish a new order of world peace to avoid conflict

• the most powerful decision-making body within the UN is the Security Council, they:

  • take military action against countries breaking international law or persecuting people

  • apply economic or diplomatic sanctions to countries, to try to force them to change their behaviour

  • authorise UN-Peacekeeping forces (UN troops occupy a region to keep peace but not take sides)

Examples

Successful Operations

→ Bosnian War 1992-5

context: Europe’s first ground war since 1945 + toxic mix of ethnic, religious and nationalist divide = war involving genocide, mass rape and many other war crime

• UN resolution = NATO-enforced no-fly zone

• UN peacekeepers try establishing safe zones (difficult)

• NATO-led, UN-sanctioned naval blockade in the Adriatic placed

• NATO air strikes against Bosnian Serbs = end

 Unsuccessful Operations

→ UN actions in Haiti after 2010, devastating 7.0MMS earthquake

• UN peacekeepers sent brought in cholera = 820,000 infected + 10,000 died

Limitations

• Any of the five permanent states can veto a decision

• The USA, UK and France tend to vote 'as one', as do Russia and China = deadlock common (also gives Western powers a 3:2 advantage)

• Have been accused of failing to act

  • e.g. Ukraine + Israel/Palestine

• Countries take individual action when an agreement cannot be reached collectively, undermining the principles of the council

Purpose

→ Superpowers can act globally (most true for USA) so weaker countries often look to them in times of crisis:

• intervening in war and conflict, especially when an internal conflict threatens to spill-out into other countries

• acting in terms of crisis response, e.g., natural disaster, famine or a serious disease outbreak

• responding to terrorism, such as the threat from Al-Qaeda or ISIS

• responding to longer-term threats, such as climate-change-induced global warming

→ often an unpopular stance with public + sometimes leaders (e.g., China reluctant) as costly

Examples

Successful Operations

→ The Ebola Epidemic 2014-2016

context: outbreak in West Africa in 2013 worsened by 2014 - Ebola has no cure or vaccine, is easily transmitted in insanitary conditions, and has a mortality rate of 50-70%

• USA, France, UK led response in Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, respectively

• in Sierra Leone the UK committed £430,000, 1500 troops, 150 NHS personnel

• work of NGOs and WHO crucial but so was support of traditionally powerful countries who could deploy significant assets quickly

Limitations

• ulterior motives: can act to fit own agenda, not just for peace

• however, can make faster decisions

  • e.g. UN requires a vote

Examples

• WTO

  • focus trade and its rules = protects capitalism

    • aim to reduce trade barriers by negotiating free trade agreements

• World Bank

  • support capitalism by financing project loans to developing countries development

    provide finance following natural disasters/humanitarian emergencies

• IMF

  • stabilise global currencies + provide loans to help developing countries reduce poverty → Strategic Attachment Programme (condition of loans to promote capitalism)

• WEF

  • Swiss non-profit org. founded 1971

  • promotes public-private co-operation at annual forum in Davos

    • aim bring together business + wider society by discussing wider issues (e.g. terrorism)

  • members think internationally = promote global links

Limitations

→ WTO

• limitation of fair, free trade causing repercussions for smaller traders

  • e.g. the Winward Isles

→ Disproportionate spread of influence and designed to favour Western HICs

• e.g. IMF + World Bank voting weight disparity

  • IMF: 189 members, BUT greatest investors have the greatest voting right → 8 countries 47% of vote

  • World Bank: USA controlled 16.5% of votes 2016

→ BRICs

• Brazil, Russia, India, China (can include South Africa and Indonesia)

→ OPEC

• Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela

→ NII (Next II)

• Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran

→ CIVETS

• Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa

GDP Rank

1. USA

GDP Growth (annual %)

1. Turkey (esp. since covid)

publicly traded: shares held by a range of players (banks, institutions, TNCs around the world)

• e.g. Walmart largest TNC (USA)

  • 2023 revenue = $630bil

  • 2.2mil employees

state owned: majority or whole of TNC owned by the government

• e.g. Sinopec (China)

  • 2023 revenue = $471bil

  • 358,000 employees

  → 2023: 4 of top 10 fortune 500 from emerging powers + state owned (3 from China → Sinopec Group, state grid, China National Petroleum)

→ emerging superpowers = largest companies usually state owned

• China = top 12 owned by state

→ Western superpowers = companies publicly traded and can exert their dominance

• rich enough to invest in new technology

• wealthier companies outcompete smaller rivals = monopoly

• can borrow money and invest to take advantage of globalisation

• free-market capitalism has opened new markets, allowing TNCs’ expansion

2014 the Top 500 Companies

→ $31.2tril in revenue

→ $1.7tril in profit

→ employed 65mil

→ TNCs often generate most profit for shareholders = rich get richer and poor get poorer dichotomy

→ Environmental degradation

• Brazil’s state-owned oil TNC, Petrobras, causes them to prioritise economic sustainability > environmental sustainability

  • need to deforest the Amazon to extract oil

Fortune Global 500

→ ~400 of top 500 companies come from only 7 countries = these superpowers have dominance

• since 2020 = China most companies in fortune global 500 (2022 = 136 companies)

  • China rapid economy growth and therefore political influence → 2005 = 16 companies in top 500

  • BUT USA close (2022 = 124 companies) + USA’s companies have larger profit margins (US = 6.7% avg. return on assets (ROA) compared to China = 2.2%)

    • profit difference due to 71% China’s companies being state-owned enterprises (SOEs)

      In China (2022):

      → private = 3.9% ROA

      → SOE = 1.5% ROA

  • showing favour for state-owned?

Top 15 Brands

→ 7/15 technology companies

→ 11/15 based in USA

• 1. Apple →$2.34mil

  • partly accredited to strong brand value

brand value: value of a brand measured using metrics such as market share, customer opinion, and brand loyalty

• good = Heinz (beans), Disney, Apple

Top 6 Global Media Brands

→ all originate from the USA

• AT&T, Comcast, Disney, Google, Viacom CBS, Netflix

  • AT&T: 2019 revenue = $181bil

    • includes brands such as Warner Bros, CNN, Cartoon Network, HBO etc

• Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights

• Agreement between WTO members

  • The Doha declaration -> a WTO statement that clarifies the scope of TRIPS

• Require WTO members to provide copyright rights + specifies enforcement and dispute resolution procedures

• Incorporates IPR law into international trade

Counterfeit Products in Thailand

→ illegal - violates TRIPS

How

• Expired licenses but manufacturers continue to produce goods

• When licenses/trademarks expire criminals register brands in Bangkok before owners get a chance

• Piracy: products often produced in China, smuggled via Cambodia to Thailand

Why

• Much cheaper prices = favourable

  • e.g., fake Birkenstocks £3.50 but official brand £80

Actions to Stop

• Laws to tackle counterfeit/pirated products BUT corrupt officials easily bribed by gangs/businesses

• Although the International Trade Court in Bangkok provides specialist judges to handle IP cases, very few recent criminal cases have led to sentencing

Affect on Thailand’s International Relations

• Thailand is on USA’s Priority Watch list of ‘markets that offer counterfeit and pirated goods’

• USA pressuring Thai authorities

→ Intellectual property (IP) refers to creations of the mind (such as inventions; literary and artistic works; designs and symbols, names and images) used in commerce

→ Patents are a form of intellectual property -> give the owner the legal right to exclude others from making, using, selling, and importing an invention for a limited period of years

• Invest millions into design and innovation

• Unique designs or functions are part of their unique selling point (USP) and their brand identity (so want to legally protect that)

• They will not want their design being used without appropriate licensing/payment

  • e.g. Apple vs Samsung

Home nations:

• Apple – Cupertino, California, USA

• Samsung – Suwon-si, South Korea (it’s a Chaebol -> a Korean family-owned business turned TNC)

→ Samsung accused of copying design features from the original iPhone (grid layout for icons) + more court cases

→ 2011-2018 court dispute over grid patent ended with a US jury ordering Samsung to pay apple $539m (reduced from the 2012 US jury awarding Apple $1.06b)

→ ‘evergreening’

• Pharma companies are applying for new patents for existing productions by making small tweaks to maintain control of these products –> as the U.S. patent system is meant to reward innovation by barring other manufacturers from making generic versions for a set period - usually 20 years

  • pushing the price of branded medicines up

    • e.g., insulin (invented 100 years ago and cost less than $10 a vial to produce) costs $275 a vial (from Eli Lilly’s popular Humalog injections) in the USA

    • BUT $32 a vial in Canada -> shows US federal govs failure to control cost of prescription drugs

→ GM companies known for strict licensing agreements and for suing farmers when GM crops have self-seeded outside of licensed areas

• buyers typically must follow restrictions

  • e.g., soybeans with modified resistance to Roundup → farmers may only use seeds for 1 planting

1. Russia (5977)

2. USA (5428)

3. France (290)

Brazil: Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) member (discontinued nuclear programme 1990)

Turkey: NPT member = don’t have any nuclear weapons of own BUT host for US

+ highest military spending in 2020

→ Urban Air Quality = low

• coal burning power stations

• open stores

  • e.g. India → air quality 7x worse WHO guidelines

• car use (Shanghai + Beijing

China: leading cause of death (2mil/year)

→ Demand

• fossil fuels

• REEs

• manufactured goods

• food imports

  • account for most CO₂ emissions from shipping (6th largest CO₂ emitter if ranked as a country)

    → uses bunker (lowest quality oil)

    • illegal to use pure bunker in EU + UK

→ Deforestation and Degradation

• most prevalent in emerging powers due to changes in farming, urbanisation etc

→ USA + China often greatest consumption rates (esp. USA → consumerism) due to large populations and large industries

• animal feed: 1. USA → 32% total world consumption (TWC)

• natural gas: 1. USA → 22% TWC

  • fracking

• coal: 1. China → 39% TWC

  • large industry + reserves (4th largest → 13% global reserves)

→ Largest disparity in ranking is for cotton

1. China → 41% TWC (clothing manufacture)

2. India → 15% TWC (textile industries)

• all countries in top 4 in the tropics → have climate needed for cotton growth

  • 3. Pakistan

  • 4. Turkey

Critique:

European countries on almost none top 4 TWCs as countries not large enough

→ per capita would be more useful measure

Overall:

Superpowers/emerging powers have disproportionately high consumption of resources

1984

1. Europe → 1.5bil tonnes

2. Asia → 1.3bil tonnes (greater population)

3. North America → 0.9bil tones

2010

1. Asia → 2.1bil tonnes (5× 1984 → increased emerging powers, rapid industry growth)

2. North America → 1.1bil tonnes (roughly same)

3. Europe → 1bil tonnes (slight decrease)

→ USA decreased per capita CO₂ emissions since 2000s as efficiency of tech increased even though coal consumption similar

• 30% households without electricity

  • have to ensure electricity is affordable (coal is cheap)

• Vast coal reservoir

  • rank 5th → 9% global reserve

• 500mil households cook using biomass (e.g. cow manure) → if all switched to coal, CO₂ emission would skyrocket

→ neo-colonialist attitudes

• USA judges India but still use fossil fuels themselves (poor environmental change leader - need superpowers to lead?)

→ refer to 17 metallic elements with useful properties, needed for technology and medicine

• some are magnetic → key to clean energy technology (turbines, electric car motors)

Geopolitics

• can be frontline of geopolitical power

  • restricting access would cause dire consequences

    e.g. 2010, China blocked REE exports to Japan as punishment for Japan’s detention of a Chinese captain

• some nations can more easily gather and therefore control

  • while abundant and well distributed, they are difficult and therefore expensive to extract

→China has largest reserves → 37.9% (large enough to monopolise?)

• then Vietnam → 18.9%

  • large disparity

→ China has largest production → 61% (due to low cost, high pollution methods in areas of relaxed regulation)

• then USA → 16%

  • large disparity

→ China more so moving production to Africa (contaminate outside communities instead)

• DRC → China gained rights to lithium mines in return for building national roads, highways, and hospitals

• Kenya → China obtained commercial licenses for REE mines as will build a $666mil data centre

  • some speculate it’s a long-term strategy for China to lock African nations into a cycle of debt

Environmental Concerns

• current consumption rates = need 7x more REEs if to keep to Sustainable Development Goals

  → overconsuming

  • further concern with ‘green technology’ → electric car requires 6x the mineral inputs of a conventional car

    = demand for REEs could increase 20x by 2050

• leaching pools (used to separate metals) release dangerous chemicals into air and ground water = illness + unsafe drinking water

  • often in areas with weak regulations

  • Chinese gov acknowledged existence of ‘cancer villages’ → disproportionately high rates due to mining-based pollution

• for every tonne of REE, 2000 tonnes toxic waste produced.