Why can we not rely on intuition & common sense?
Because of hindsight bias, judgmental overconfidence, our tendency to perceive patterns in random events overestimates our intuition.
Hindsight bias
‘i knew it all along’ phenomenon, tendency to believe that one would have foreseen it after learning the outcome
Why do we perceive patterns?
because of our eagerness to make sense of the world
Humility
awareness of our own vulnerability to error & an openness to surprises & new perspectives
Attitudes that make modern science possible
skepticism, curiosity, humility
Curiosity
a passion to explore and understand
Critical Thinking
thinking that does not blindly accept arguments. It examines assumptions, assesses the source, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence & assesses conclusions
Overconfidence
results partly from our bias to seek information that confirms our judgements
Skepticism
keeps us from accepting ideas without sound support
Scientific Method
a self correcting process for evaluating ideas with observation and analysis
Theory
an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations & predicts behaviors/events.
Hypothesis
a testable prediction, often implied by a theory
How are hypotheses formed?
Theories produce hypotheses.
Operational definition
a carefully worded statement of the exact procedures used in a research study, important for replication
Replication
repeating the essence of a research study with different participants/situations to see if the basic findings extends to other circumstances.
Descriptive Methods
describe behaviors (case study, survey, observations)
Correlational Methods
associate different factors/variables
Experimental Methods
manipulate variables to discover effects
Case Study
a descriptive technique in which one individual is studied in depth to reveal universal principles
Naturalistic Observations
observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate/control the situation, a descriptive technique
Survey
a technique for finding the self-reported attitudes/behaviors of a particular group by asking questions
Sampling Bias
flawed sampling process that produces an unrepresentative sample
Population
all those in a group being studied
Random Sample
sample that fairly represents a population as each member has an equal chance of inclusion
Descriptive Methods
describe, but do not explain behavior as these methods don’t control the variables that affect behavior
Study Errors
no hypothesis, non random sample, no operational definition
Correlation
measure of the extent to which 2 variables change together & how well either variable predicts the other
Correlation Coefficient
a statistical index of the relationship between 2 variables (from -1.0 to +1.0), reveals the extent to which things relate
Scatterplot
graphed clusters of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables
Slope of scatterplot
suggests the direction of the relationship between 2 variables
Amount of scatter on scatterplot
suggests the strength of the correlation, little scatter = high correlation
Negative Correlation
sets of scores relate inversely, one set goes up, one goes down
Positive Correlation
both sets go in the same direction
Correlation does not mean causation
-
Illusory Correlation
perception of a relationship when none exists
Experiment
research method in which an investigator manipulates one/more factors to observe the effect on some behavior processes
Experimental group
the group exposed to the treatment
Control Group
the group not exposed to the treatment, serves as comparison
Random Assignment
assigning participants to groups by chance to minimize preexisting differences
Double-Blind Procedure
experimental procedure in which participants & staff are blind about the treatments groups received, used in drug evaluation studies
Placebo Effect
experimental results caused by expectations alone
Independent Variable
the experimental factor that is being manipulated
Confounding Variable
factors apart from the independent variable that might produce effects in experiments
Dependent Variable
outcome factor, variable that changes due to the manipulation of the independent factor
Validity
extent to which an experiment measures what it is supposed to
Stronger Correlation
when scores are closer to -1 or +1
Descriptive Statistics
numerical data used to measure & describe characteristics of groups (organizes data meaningfully)
Histogram
bar graph depicting a frequency distribution
Measure of central tendency
a single score that represents a whole set of scores
Mode
the most frequently occurring score (simplest measure)
Mean
arithmetic average - sum of scores/total scores (most common)
Median
middle score in a distribution, half are above, half below
Atypical scores
could distort the mean
Skewed Distribution
representation of scores that lack symmetry around the average value
What is more reliable? Low variability or High variability?
Low variability is more reliable
Range
difference between highest and lowest scores
Standard Deviation
computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score
Large numbers of data (height,weight)
form a symmetrical, bell shaped curve
Normal Curve
normal distribution, symmetrical bell-shaped curve, most scores fall near the mean
Inferential Statistics
numerical data that allows one to generalize, helps us determine if results can be generalized to other populations
When are observed differences reliable?
Depends on the population sampled (representative is better than random)
Less variable observations (average is better)
More cases are better than fewer
Statistical significance
a statistical statement of how likely it is that the result has been obtained by chance
Range
measure of variation
Purpose of experiments
to test theoretical principles
WEIRD
W - Western
E - Educated
I - Industrialized
R - Rich
D - Democratic
Culture
shared ideas & behaviors that one generation passes on to the next
Collectivist cultures
emphasizes group goals
Individualist Cultures
prioritizes individual goals
Ethical Principles
obtain potential participants informed consent
protect them from physical/emotional harm
keep participants’ information confidential
fully debrief
Informed Consent
ethical principle that participants be told enough to choose whether they wish to participate
Debriefing
post experimental explanation of a study
Cross Sectional Studies
compares different groups for one point in time
Longitudinal Studies
follows one group and gathers data over a long time