Bio Exam 2

Most Americans think global warming is happening (70%)

A slight majority of Americans think global warming is 1º human-caused (58%)

Majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening (58%)

Well over 95% of scientists agree global warming is happening

Jointly established in 1988 the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Goals:

To assess available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change and its impacts and on the options for mitigating climate change and adapting to it

To provide, on request, scientific/technical/socio-economic advice to the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The warmest years on record in a 134+-year record have all occurred since 2000, with the last 8 (2014-2022) the hottest

2016 and 2020 were the warmest

“Hockey stick graph”- Rates of increases have themselves increased over the past 2000 years

10-50km above surface

includes where planes fly (at about 30km)

first 10km above surface

just higher than Mt Everest (tallest mountain in world)

where we are, the air we breathe

N. hemisphere (especially Arctic regions), Amazonia, and W. Africa.

Early eocene to pilocene was relatively warm

Eocene-oligocene: time of mass extinction (when dinosaurs went extinct)

Temperatures have increased at a similar rate after industrial revolution

1. Tropospheric water vapor over oceans is increasing

2. Increase of intense tropical cyclone/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970

3. Large precipitation events are a larger proportion of total precipitation on a global scale

4. Precipitation over land in many areas has increased or decreased significantly (changes have quickened in the last few decades)

5. More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas, particularly in the tropics and subtropics since the 1970s (land use exacerbates this, ex. deforestation in the Amazon)

6. Floods have increased in intensity in many parts of the world

1. Sea ice is melting (arctic sea ice decreased significantly, antarctic ice increased slightly, but recently is decreasing quickly)

2. Ice shelves -w/ice over water and some over land- are breaking

3. Terrestrial glaciers have experienced huge reductions

4. Snow cover and permafrost in northern hemisphere are decreasing

when a change has an effect that makes the original change even more marked. [here, for example, the melting of ice causes more energy absorption by water, causing more warming and more melting as a result, making it WORSE.

= tipping point

The added water vapor increases the possibility of extreme storms developing over the ocean

Salinity changing (Atlantic is more saline than Pacific, salinity of Mediterranean is VERY high)

Arctic “sea ice minimum” has decreased (a POSITIVE feedback)

Doesn’t affect sea level, but changes surface from white ice to dark water, which affects reflection

1. an ice shelf is a large floating platform of ice that forms where a glacier or ice sheet flows to a coastline and onto the ocean surface

2. Bc ice forms over land, sea level RISES when ice shelves melt and water flows into the ocean

1. Bc ice forms over land, sea level RISES when glaciers melt and water flows into ocean (ex. Greenland and Antarctia)

2. Many mountain glaciers are disappearing as well (ex. Alaska, Asia-many Himilayan glaciers will be gone by middle of this century, Africa-Kilimanjaro likely to be gone in next two decades, South America)

The reduction in permafrost “activates” many microbes, which consequently can release large amounts of CO2 and methane, with large positive feedback effects.

• Can turn an area from a carbon sink to a carbon emitter

A “tipping point”

SST and loss of terrestrial glaciers

• Rising at an increasing rate

• Global average sea level rose .17m during 20th century

• Melting of Greenland ice sheet alone could account for a ~20 foot rise considering additional increases w/thermal expansion.

Increased vulnerabilities during storms → susceptibility during hurricanes and windstorms

ex. East coast of USA and Asia/Australia have higher sea levels

Higher energy solar radiation gets through atmosphere, but loses  energy and reflects off of earth as longer-wave/thermal radiation (lower energy) that gets trapped when it tries to go back through the atmosphere

Trapped radiation-→ heat

• Shorter wavelength/higher frequency radiation has higher energy

• Solar radiation includes near UV radiation, visible, and infrared

• Infrared radiation (aka Thermal): what we feel as heat/warmth

• Visible radiation: what we see as light (rainbow)

• Ultraviolet radiation: we cant directly detect this, but can be hurt by it

  • Ultra=above, violet= highest radiation we can detect, so ultraviolet means highest frequency radiation

• Greenhouse gases

  • CO2*, methane*, N20, water vapor emitted into atmosphere trap more radiation and lead to more warming of our troposphere

  • * key GHGs

• Higher energy solar radiation gets through atmosphere, but loses energy and reflects as lower energy (longer-wave/thermal) radiation that gets trapped

measure of the net change in the energy balance of the Earth system in response to some input/perturbation. Measured as W (m-2)

Positive RFs mean the change (e.g., accumulation of CO2) causes more radiation to be trapped by the atmosphere, warming the troposphere.

• POSITIVE forcing

Negative RFs means more radiation reflected away so less is trapped and less warming (ex. high white fluffy clouds)

• NEGATIVE forcing

POSITIVE

(models incorporating anthropogenic + natural forcings show this pattern best)

a little over 1 degree

CO2- most important contributor to both natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing

CO2 is natural, but increases above normal atmospheric are due primarily to human activities

• Combustion of fossil and biomass fuels (incl. forest fires)

• Land use changes

• Cement (from breakdown of limestone and E to produce).

Fossil fuel combustion is largest source

Plants through photosynthesis, diffusion of CO2 into water (ex. oceans)

Animal, plant, and microbial respiration, human activities (burning fossil fuels)

Fossil fuels, cement, and land use emit 9 GtC

Photosynthesis only removes 3 GtC, oceans (through acidification) only remove 2 GtC

China, US, and India

• Emissions (consumption) in non-Annex 1 (i.e., “developing”) countries are generally increasing relatively faster (due to population and standard of living)

  • ex. China and India

• Some Annex-1 countries (e.g., US, Germany, UK) have decreased their emissions, owing in part to adoption of renewable sources and better technologies

Canada, Saudi Arabia, and US

• Oil producing countries generally have high per capita consumption (the highest in world is Qatar = 32.5 (but down from 45.4 in 2014!)

Non-CO2 GHGs - methane most important, but also N20 (nitrous oxide), and other chemical pollutants

• Halogenated gases1 (e.g., CFCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and carbon monoxide (CO) combine for net positive forcing

landfills, oil and natural gas systems, agriculture, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and some industrial processes

62% natural, with rest due to anthropogenic activities (agriculture/fertilizers, burning fossil and biomass fuels, sewage)

Halogenated gases1 (e.g., CFCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and carbon monoxide (CO)

Primarily anthropogenic incl. refrigerants (CFCs), exhaust from combustion of fossil and biomass fuels (including forest fires), other pollution from industry

POSITIVE

Several pollutants (methane, NOx, VOCs, and carbon monoxide) contribute to tropospheric ozone (”smog”), exacerbating warming

• Occurs because UV radiation scattered and trapped in troposphere

• Causes heath problems like asthma

• Tropospheric/ground-level ozone is the BAD OZONE!

NEGATIVE

• Crucial for blocking UV radiation and thus is protective

• Stratospheric ozone is the GOOD OZONE!

  Some UV radiation is reflected by ozone in stratosphere. Also protects us from some harmful UV

Formed naturally by chemical reactions involving solar (UV) radiation and oxygen

Endangered

Destruction of stratospheric ozone is a concern (‘the ozone hole”)

Chemicals/gases from both industry (e.g. halocarbons such as CFCs) and natural events (e.g., volcanoes) can find their way to the stratosphere and destroy stratospheric ozone

NEGATIVE

light colored clouds, chemicals, and dust will increase reflectance “albedo”- level of reflection

white surfaces have higher albedo, dark surfaces have lower albedo (which means they absorb more)

POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE

Darker surfaces (soil, water, forests, croplands) have lower albedo and thus more positive radiative forcing (warming)

Other surfaces (dry sand, ice, fresh snow) have higher albedo and can have a lower or even negative radiative forcing (cooling)

INCREASE of a little over 1 degree C in 2010-19 relative to 1850-1900.

1.1

Expressed as net radiative forcing, this is a net POSITIVE radiative forcing which represents an increase of 2.72(+) W m-2 in 2021 relative to pre-industrial times.

INCREASES

Direct relationship between CO2 (GHGs in general) and temperature anomalies

ex. SSP2- 4.5

First number references the storyline

Second number is RF (the lower the better)

• Indicates how much forcing in 2100 increased relative to pre industrial times

SSP1- Sustainability / Green Road

SSP2-Middle of the Road

SSP3-Regional Rivalry / Rocky Road

SSP4-Inequality / Road Divided

SSP5-Fossil-fueled Development

we need to be low on challenges for mitigation and adaptation

(Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation = best case scenario) most optimistic of all for human development; increasing shift toward sustainable practices; some projections lead to decreased RF

Common storylines: SSP1- 1.9 and 2.6

• We are currently at 2.72 so these are a decrease

(Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation) historical patterns of uneven development among countries continues through the 21st century; projections here assume progress is good, so relatively low RF

Common storyline: SSP2-4.5

(High challenges to mitigation and adaptation) worst case = most pessimistic of all; nationalistic approaches with countries going on their own and with few investments to counter environmental degradation

Common storyline: SSP3-7.0

(Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation) high disparities among and within countries, with only some possessing the technological capability to confront problems

(High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation) relatively optimistic trends for human development but driven by an energy-intensive, fossil fuel-based economy

Common storyline: SSP5-8.5

RFs have increased from 2.3 W m-2  to between 2.72 W m-2 or 3 W m-2 over the past ~8 years.

At this rate, RFs will be between ~6.8 -9.8 in 2100!!

• We will reach +3.8 C to more than +5 C in global temperature increase relative to pre industrial times (compared to current 1 degree!!!)

LARGER

The extremes get more extreme (both dry and wet areas)

Sea ice will be practically gone by 2100

Snow cover and permafrost projected to decrease by between 37% to 81%

Metabolic rate will increase→ produce more CO2

Leads to positive feedback

Disease burden- Respiratory and Infectious Diseases

Changes to Hydrological Cycle- Quantity and Quality of  Water

Environmental Disruption– Species Distribution, Food Security \n (includes disruption of ecosystem services)

Health Effects of Temperature and Extreme Weather

Forced Migration, Conflict and Refugees

• Air pollution and increasing allergens associated with increased use of fossil fuels (including tropospheric ozone) have led to increased respiratory problems

• Respiratory problems exacerbated by air pollution (including pneumonia and asthma) are the largest reasons for childhood hospitalizations

The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.

A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This report also assesses human interventions to reduce the sources of other substances which may contribute directly or indirectly to limiting climate change, including, for example, the reduction of particulate matter emissions that can directly alter the radiation balance (e.g., black carbon) or measures that control emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, Volatile Organic Compounds and other pollutants that can alter the concentration of tropospheric ozone which has an indirect effect on the climate.

The capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation.

Climate change – and land use changes and globalization – are increasing risk for infectious diseases

In part due to distribution of vectors – agents that spread disease from host to host

Anopheles- Malaria

Aedes- Dengue, Zika, & others

Eastern Blacklegged (Deer) Tick- Lyme disease

• Precipitation and temperature key factors

• The capacity of the local medical system also impacts the severity of diseases; in some countries, low capacities are especially worrisome

Low and Medium

• HDI – Human Development Index \n A composite index of life expectancy, education (mean years of schooling), and per capita income (gross national income) indicators.

Reproductive potential of Aedes vectors for dengue \n increasing globally

The primary vectors of Zika (e.g., Aedes aegypti) are already present in the US and future outbreaks are expected (cases have appeared in the US)

Lyme disease in eastern US is rising and projected to get worse w/climate change due to expansion of tick habitat and changed dynamics of animal hosts and the disease-causing bacterium

Cholera

• Caused by a bacterium (Vibrio) – proliferates in warm rivers and coastal waters and is on the rise globally owing to warming water temperatures and flooding

• Increasingly high % suitable coastline in essentially all countries

• Already hydrological cycles have been affected in many regions, affecting quantity and quality of water resources. Both increases and decreases (desertification) observed

• Precipitation over land has already changed, with variation both spatially and temporally (more marked changes recently)

• Projected to continue to change, w/larger extremes at high warming/RFs

• Has potential to destabilize water supplies and agriculture

Dry hot conditions (and extreme heat) increase risk of fire with consequent destruction of property, increased costs, negative \n health effects, and loss of life

• ex. ~46 million acres burned, thousands of structures, and several lives lost in Australia in the 2019-2020 season alone

• billions of animal lives lost in the 2019-2020 season alone

• people dependent on the water

• people and businesses dependent on hydropower

• shipping and manufacturing and thus supply chains (e.g., on the Mississippi and in China)

changes to water quality and quantity

• Recall phytoplankton are the primary producers in marine ecosystems, and produce ~50% of the O2 on earth

• “Climate change is shifting not only the intensity of phytoplankton blooms, but their composition. Harmful algal blooms (also known as red tides) are expected to increase as the oceans warm. ... This disperses the free-floating phytoplankton deeper into the water column, limiting their access to sunlight.”

• Plant and animal species show different capabilities to move in response to changing climate. Vulnerabilities (not achieving required relocation) increase with higher RF projections

  • Terrestrial species (ex. trees have lower capability than pumas, ones below target line will not survive)

• Many marine species have already shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to ongoing climate change

Recent collapse of snow crabs (and lucrative market) in Bering Sea

• Scientists warn that the warm conditions that led to this first-ever harvest cancelation are likely to be more common in the future.

Some commercial fishing fleets already have longer travel times

Predators of these species (e.g., sharks!) follow!

• Sharks now prevalent off coasts of NY/NJ

Consider reliance of some populations (e.g., Indonesia) on fish as food/protein source even though they have lower catch potential

Fish habitat deflates.

• Further warming of surface waters along with expanding dead zones from deeper into shallower water can reduce habitat for marine fish and plankton (warming decreases dissolved oxygen levels)

• Also occurs in freshwater fish (ex. trout in danger)

Clams, oysters, shrimp, crabs, lobsters

• As you increase acidity, the number of these affected goes up)

“Shells on acid”

• Acid dissolves the calcium carbonate in shells and corals

• Shells of some plankton now 76% thinner than in 19th century

Bleaching

• “bleaching” is when colorful photosynthetic algae (zooxanthellae) are driven out, upsetting the mutual symbiosis between the algae and coral animals

• ex. Australia’s great barrier reef

  • Especially rapid decline attributed primarily to rising temperatures and acidification Zooxanthellae algae driven out, causing eventual death of coral animals unless reversed

  • Current issue: the bleaching occurred in the year 2016 and 2017 affected a stretch of 1500 kilometers (900 miles) of the coral reef and now the scale of mortality is such that there is nothing left for the coral reef to replenish

crop yields

Maize, winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, rice

Economies in all HDI countries are already suffering from the increase in temperature (e.g., reduced work productivity; billion hours lost)

Impact on outdoor activities (losing safe average hours of physical activity)

High mortality from extreme heat, even in the US and other developed (high/very high HDI) countries

Hurricanes are becoming more destructive – and in some years more numerous – w/increasing SST, water vapor, +“ocean energy”

Slow-moving large storms becoming more common – INCREASES FLOODING (e.g., Ian in 2022)

We are already seeing environmental refugees and projected increases are staggering

ex. report predicts 140 mil refugees by 2050 unless action is taken

The ocean

• lots of water, great place for CO2 to be absorbed

• but there is an environmental cost: when water reacts with CO2, acid is formed

transportation, electrical generation, and industry

MUST REDUCE EMISSIONS AND REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS of greenhouse gases and adapt and build resilience to changes that will happen

Taming emissions – technologies

Technology for fuel efficiency/lower emissions exists and is already deployed worldwide, we just need to set the emission standards (CAFE)

• CAFE –__Corporate __Average __Fuel __Economy

Taming emissions – technologies

Designing our cities to be transit-oriented to promote public transportation and walking/biking, and to be mixed-use and compact

• Decreases emissions/vehicle-miles driven (and traffic jams + stress)

• with co benefits: Improves health, affect, and exercise, Increases tax base and quality of life

Taming emissions – technologies

Fossil fuels predominate now, but some good news…

• Coal decreasing

• Renewables low but increasing

  • China has surpassed the US in low-C energy production

• [also Natural gas increasing Nuclear ~constant]

• Wind and solar sectors seeing growth especially (with large increases predicted)

technology, ecological, policy

9·7%

Taming emissions – technologies

This technique removes CO2 from smokestacks BEFORE it is released

• incorporates a scuba-like technology that uses chemicals to bind (“capture”) CO2 and remove it before it is released

Taming emissions – technologies

ex. in homes- solar panels, low flow water fixtures, double insulation

Reducing accumulation– technologies

captures CO2 and injects it underground, where it is trapped and is stabilized after binding to brine and minerals

• Best case storylines in IPCC rely heavily on carbon capture and storage strategies working to manage atmospheric [CO2].

Reducing accumulations– ecological

• e.g.,  maintain good functional forests and healthy populations of phytoplankton

  • these remove CO2 (and produce O2) through photosynthesis and also lower other GHG

• Warmer temperatures and higher CO2 levels increase rates of photosynthesis → planting trees is a carbon offset

• maintain ecosystems that store carbon naturally

  • Several terrestrial ecosystems can store a lot of carbon belowground serve as important carbon sinks = “carbon sequestration” (peatlands)

• Proper functioning water and nutrient cycles help regulate important greenhouse gases (esp. CO2, N2O, and water)

Healthy ecosystems and soil (incl. microbes)– when functioning properly  – will reduce accumulations

Taming emissions – ecological

• would reduce emissions from agriculture as livestock require a lot of resources and produce methane (up to ~7.1 Gt CO2 eq/year)

• 50% of habitable land is agriculture

• Meat production very space- and resource-intensive!

  77% of agricultural land used for livestock/dairy, YET provides only ~18% of global calories and 37% protein

• Also…takes about 1800 gallons of water/lb beef, and ~576 gallons/lb pork

• Total consumption of meat (million metric tons) increasing in many regions and globally

  • INCREASING World-wide – esp. China, Asia, Central & Soth America, and Africa

  • US has highest consumption \n on a per capita basis

direct subsidies to business, tax benefits/breaks, \n coverage of R&D costs/demonstration projects through the \n Department of Energy

covering infrastructure, military, and supporting the technology in general  and covering any effects

Taming emissions – Policy/Regulatory solutions