2.4) Population Dynamics
Explain factors that account for contemporary and historical trends in population growth & decline
What factors determine a population’s growth and decline?
Fertility
a) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
b) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Mortality
a) Life expectancy
b) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
c) Infant Mortality rate (IMR)
Migration
Fertility
a) Crude Birth rate (CBR)
The number of live births occurring in one year per 1,000 poeple
b) Total Ferility Rate (TFR)
AVerage number of children who would be born per woman during her childbearing years
Globally TFR has been significantly decreasing over time
Mortality
a) Life Expectancy
The number of years the average person will live
This has been steadily increasing over time, which has contributed to population growth
b) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
The number of deaths occurring in one year per 1,000 people
c) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
The number of children who die before one year of age
Typically when IMR goes down, life expectancy goes up which leads to higher population growth
How do geographers calculate population growth & decline?
a) Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or Natural rate of Increase (RNI)
Does not account for migration
Can be a negative #, indicating population decrease
Usually expressed/ represented in a percentage
b) Population Growth Rate
More accurate measure because it accounts for migration
Immagrants- people who moved into a country
Emigrants- people who move out of the country
Births - Deaths + Immigrants - Emigrants
c) Doubling Time: The number of years in which a population will double assuming the growth rate remains stable
(Rule of 70 or Rule of 72)
Explain factors that account for contemporary and historical trends in population growth and decline
Explain how the changing role of females has demographic consequences in different parts of the world
Historical Trends in Population Growth and decline
Throughout most of history, population growth was very low
Starting around 1750
Agricultural revolution
Industrial revolution
Rapid Urbanization
Rapid Urbanization
Advances in healthcare and Sanitation
First 1 billion in 1804
Since then, doubling time has decreased as population growth increased rapidly
Contemporary Trends in Population Growth and Decline
Today, most population growth is happening in LDCs- specifically in Aisa and Africa
NIR in Niger = 3.8%
NIR in Spain= -0.11%
What causes population to grow and decline
Population Growth- High TFR, CBR or life expectancy// Low CDR & IMR
ECONOMIC
Agricultural societies
Need children to labor on the farm
Advancements in food production and nutrition
Mechanization of Agriculture
Farming efficiency
Advancements in sanitation
Less water contamination and disease
Water treatment plants
Garbage pickup
Economic prosperity
Access to healthcare
Core countries provide better healthcare services
Prevention and Cure of disease
Women have access to pre & and post-natal care
Population Decline - High CDR and IMR // Low TFR, CBR, or life expectancy
Industrial and post-industrial society
Women more involved in workforce
Urbanization → small living quarters
Economic hardship
Children are expensive, provision of food and resources
Access to healthcare
Women have access to contraceptives
SOCIAL
Religion
Traditional cultures encourage big families
Restriction of contraceptive use and abortion
Earlier Marriages = more children
Role of Women - Education & Workforce
Cultural expectations have changed in many MDC’s → more women in the workforce/ education → postpone having children → reduction is childbearing years → less children
Healthcare
How to care for babies → lower IMR, CDR, higher life expectancy
Access & understanding of contraception → lower TFR
POLITICAL
Pro-Natalist Population Policies
Government encourages families through propaganda and incentives to have children
Shift from war to peace → Baby Boom
Anti-Natalist Population policies
Government discourages families through propaganda, disincentives, and policies.
War
Higher mortality rate,
shortages of supplies
increase in migration
NATURAL
Natural disasters (earthquakes, flooding, tsunamis, hurricanes)
Famine and Drought
Spread of disease
60% of Europe died in the 1300s due to Bubonic Plague
2.4) Population Dynamics
Explain factors that account for contemporary and historical trends in population growth & decline
What factors determine a population’s growth and decline?
Fertility
a) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
b) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Mortality
a) Life expectancy
b) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
c) Infant Mortality rate (IMR)
Migration
Fertility
a) Crude Birth rate (CBR)
The number of live births occurring in one year per 1,000 poeple
b) Total Ferility Rate (TFR)
AVerage number of children who would be born per woman during her childbearing years
Globally TFR has been significantly decreasing over time
Mortality
a) Life Expectancy
The number of years the average person will live
This has been steadily increasing over time, which has contributed to population growth
b) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
The number of deaths occurring in one year per 1,000 people
c) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
The number of children who die before one year of age
Typically when IMR goes down, life expectancy goes up which leads to higher population growth
How do geographers calculate population growth & decline?
a) Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or Natural rate of Increase (RNI)
Does not account for migration
Can be a negative #, indicating population decrease
Usually expressed/ represented in a percentage
b) Population Growth Rate
More accurate measure because it accounts for migration
Immagrants- people who moved into a country
Emigrants- people who move out of the country
Births - Deaths + Immigrants - Emigrants
c) Doubling Time: The number of years in which a population will double assuming the growth rate remains stable
(Rule of 70 or Rule of 72)
Explain factors that account for contemporary and historical trends in population growth and decline
Explain how the changing role of females has demographic consequences in different parts of the world
Historical Trends in Population Growth and decline
Throughout most of history, population growth was very low
Starting around 1750
Agricultural revolution
Industrial revolution
Rapid Urbanization
Rapid Urbanization
Advances in healthcare and Sanitation
First 1 billion in 1804
Since then, doubling time has decreased as population growth increased rapidly
Contemporary Trends in Population Growth and Decline
Today, most population growth is happening in LDCs- specifically in Aisa and Africa
NIR in Niger = 3.8%
NIR in Spain= -0.11%
What causes population to grow and decline
Population Growth- High TFR, CBR or life expectancy// Low CDR & IMR
ECONOMIC
Agricultural societies
Need children to labor on the farm
Advancements in food production and nutrition
Mechanization of Agriculture
Farming efficiency
Advancements in sanitation
Less water contamination and disease
Water treatment plants
Garbage pickup
Economic prosperity
Access to healthcare
Core countries provide better healthcare services
Prevention and Cure of disease
Women have access to pre & and post-natal care
Population Decline - High CDR and IMR // Low TFR, CBR, or life expectancy
Industrial and post-industrial society
Women more involved in workforce
Urbanization → small living quarters
Economic hardship
Children are expensive, provision of food and resources
Access to healthcare
Women have access to contraceptives
SOCIAL
Religion
Traditional cultures encourage big families
Restriction of contraceptive use and abortion
Earlier Marriages = more children
Role of Women - Education & Workforce
Cultural expectations have changed in many MDC’s → more women in the workforce/ education → postpone having children → reduction is childbearing years → less children
Healthcare
How to care for babies → lower IMR, CDR, higher life expectancy
Access & understanding of contraception → lower TFR
POLITICAL
Pro-Natalist Population Policies
Government encourages families through propaganda and incentives to have children
Shift from war to peace → Baby Boom
Anti-Natalist Population policies
Government discourages families through propaganda, disincentives, and policies.
War
Higher mortality rate,
shortages of supplies
increase in migration
NATURAL
Natural disasters (earthquakes, flooding, tsunamis, hurricanes)
Famine and Drought
Spread of disease
60% of Europe died in the 1300s due to Bubonic Plague