1. Public Opinion

• Public opinion – opinions held by priv persons which gov finds prudent to heed

  • What is “public” – collection of priv persons; ppl not in public capacity

    • National public opinion = mass public (group of ppl in society)

  • What “opinion” – view or position on a question

    • Public opinion = aggregation of individual opinions

    • On topics that affect gov/future

1.1 Why Public Opinion Matters

• So ppl can critic gov and gov listens – 1st amendment

  • Right to assembly = ppl voice opinion on politics and public policy

• Interest groups try to change public opinion for them

  • Use public opinion against officials

  • Public officials could lose seat if they go against public

2. Where Does Public Opinion Come From

2.1 It Starts at Home

• Starts at home and local community during childhood

  • Values – core principles abt how political world should be

    • Influenced by childhood enviro

  • ex) balance rewards rather than giving according to performance → internalize and become values

• Values are foundation where specific political opinions are formed

  • Framework for decisions

2.2 Ideology and Partisanship

• Ideology – structured set of political attitudes that help person make sense of world

  • Ideological first principles – core ideas of how the world works

  • ex) higher taxes for more gov services bc gov solves problems

• Two main ideologies: Liberalism and Conservatism

• Liberalism:

  • Larger gov in variety of forms – more services, regulation, tax

  • Restrict individual choices for more fairness and equity

  • Progressive on social causes

  • Foreign policy – less aggressive for more agreements, diplomacy

• Conservatism:

  • Less gov services in regulation → less taxes

  • Freedom of choice even if it leads to inequality

  • Traditional, less progressive

  • Foreign policy – aggressive, military, no allies

• Partisanship – feelings of closeness to political party, identifying with party

  • Benefits of being a member: community, ppl to know/idolize, know who to root for

• Party identification:

  • Helps identify ppl who share same views

  • Useful guide in voting (less research needed)

• Independents’ party identification:

  • When pollster (person conducting survey) asks indep if they feel closer to one party, many say they do → leaners

  • Leaners – lean to one party tho they’re indep

• New evidence showing partisanship leads to ideological and policy preferences

  • Thought it would be other way around, but no

3. Measuring Public Opinion

• Using interviews – picking specific ppl who have a lot to share and having in-depth convo with them

  • What opinions and why

  • Limitations: time intensive = expensive, had to analyze results

  • Can’t do a lot of deep interviews necessary to get broad set of ppl matching country’s diversity

• Focus groups – small group discussion with moderator who asks questions and facilitates discussion to better understand ppl’s answers

  • Researchers can see how opinions play out in group dynamic

    • Other’s opinions might change other members’ minds

  • Method criticized for being subject to domination and unintentional manipulation by questioner or v vocal participants

• Leading technique for measuring public opinion → scientific polling

  • Questioning a lot of ppl

    • Usually questions are straightforward with a few multiple choice

  • Polls provide info to public officials abt what ppl think

3.2 How We Construct Polls

• Poll asks a sample – subset / portion of the population

  • Want to know large overall group aka population

• Sampling error – some level of uncertainty that exists in all polls

  • Sample could be diff from overall population bc of random chance too

  • Can’t completely say that estimation is representative of all population

• random sample of abt 1000 ppl gives good estimate for entire population 95% of time

  • Error = 3.16%

  • 1000 respondents bc big enough to decrease margin of error, also not too expensive

• Be careful of margin of error bc …

  • ex) if candidate is leading by small amt with margin 3%, they might not be leading

  • When comparing 2 things in same poll, margin of error is x2 large

    • Standard poll with error of 3%, error comparing 2 candidates is actually 6%

3.3 Importance of Random Sampling

• ex) Literary Digest poll bombed bc…

  • Polled rich subscribers who tend to favor Repub Landon over Dem FDR

• Non-response bias – if ppl who can’t be reached or refuse to participate differ systematically compared to those who do answer = results of poll are wrong

• Random digit dialing – computer randomly dials numbers in acres code until it reaches someone

  • Pollster asks respondents

  • Method to random samples

  • Use weighting methods to make sample match what electorate looks like

    • ex) if Black Americans 6% of poll but make up 12% of vote, upweight x2

3.4 Polls and Limitations

• Poll aggregation – combining and averaging results of lots of polls

  • Average of polls → good predictor of election results

  • Helps us make sense of polling on other topics where diff polls give diff results

  • Filter out bias of individual polling companies

• Limitations:

  • Wording can affect response

  • Visual design (online polls), order of questions → bias

• Non-response bias and bad weighting – inaccurate polls for recent elections

  • Trump supporters less likely to answer phone, Dems more likely → overestimate dems

  • Less accurate polls = les trust in polls = less ppl who answer polls

4. Influence of Politicians and the Media on Public Opinion

4.1 Politicians and Public Opinion

• Politicians try to change opinions of voters to get them to support particular position

  • So do interest groups, academics…

• Public not v good at making public policy

  • Instead of making policy, listen to political leaders and adopt that perspective

4.2 Media and Public Opinion

• Most Americans uninformed about politics

  • Media is major source of info

• Before internet: media = TV, radio, newspapers, magazines

  • Only 3 TV networks → tried to be neutral as possible to appeal to wider audience

• After internet and cable:

  • Specialized channels; catering to specific audiences got more profit

• Echo chamber – ppl only consume media that reflects their pov, no other side

  • Ppl share political news that align with them, ppl connect on social media tend ot have similar povs

• Media can influence public thru agenda setting and framing:

• Agenda setting – media tells ppl what issues are important

  • Sets agenda for what country thinks abt

  • No news coverage = ppl don’t know that there is an issue

  • Can focus or re-focus on issues

• Framing – context of issue

5. Protest Movements

• BLM movement – protest against racial injustices

• Public demonstrations show passion not demonstrated in other forms of political participation

  • Marches v likely to make local news, raise awareness

  • Protests show commitment, amt of ppl who support

• Peaceful demonstrations protected by First Amendment rights

  • Violent ones not = police can arrest on “public disorder”