Objectives:

1. Describe the factors that influence the presidential primaries.

   1. One of the most influential factors that determine the outcome of a presidential primary is media coverage. Candidates who are able to attract the attention of the media are often more successful in the primaries because they are able to increase their name recognition. Reporters and opponents will also investigate a candidate’s record in more detail, which can lead to scrutiny and negative press. Momentum is also an important factor in the primaries. Once a candidate is able to win once, it convinces voters that they can do it again, which can drive them to be more successful. This is why states have started to move their primary dates earlier in the calendar in order to give their primaries more importance. This has led to a compressed timeline for the primaries, which has both benefits and drawbacks. On one hand, it gives state parties more of an influence on the outcome, but on the other, it limits voters’ ability to learn about the candidates as they have less time to do so.

2. Explain how campaigns shape the outcome of presidential elections.

   1. Campaigns play an important role in shaping the outcome of presidential elections. Through campaigns, candidates use various tactics to convince voters to select them as the next president. They do this by assigning credit or blame to the current state of the nation. For example, if things are going well, the incumbent candidate will try to take credit for the success, while if things are not going well, the challenger will try to pin the blame on the incumbent. Campaigns also help voters understand why they should support their party's nominee. This is done through campaign appearances, advertisements, debates, and other techniques that stress the issues that appeal to and activate the partisans of a particular party. However, defections can occur, where partisans vote for a candidate from the other party. This can happen if voters are unhappy with their party’s stewardship of the nation. Finally, campaigns help voters judge the character of the candidates. By learning more about the candidate’s background and policies, voters can make an informed decision on who they believe will be the best leader for the nation. Overall, campaigns play an important role in shaping the outcome of presidential elections.

3. Summarize how voters learn about the candidates in elections.

   1. Voters learn about the candidates in elections primarily through campaign advertisements, nominating conventions, and presidential debates. Campaign advertisements are a major expense for campaigns and make an appeal to emotion and often contain negative attacks. Studies have shown that while these ads do not increase turnout or determine election outcomes, they do shape people's assessment of the candidates. Nominating conventions and presidential debates are two campaign events that are particularly important to voters as they often result in favorable coverage and an increase in candidate poll numbers. Presidential debates, though reaching the largest audience of any campaign event, have shown to move opinion less than conventions due to the fact that they are later in the election season, when most voters have already made a decision.

4. Explain which social groups have been most loyal to the parties over time.

   1. Over time, several social groups have remained loyal to the two major political parties in the United States. African Americans have remained the most loyal to the Democratic Party. Jewish voters have also been loyal to the Democratic Party. Latinos have also been a loyal constituency for the Democratic Party, however there are variations between Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans, with Cubans leaning more Republican and Mexicans and Puerto Ricans leaning more Democrat. Women and young people have become important Democrat constituents over time, while older voters have begun to favor Republicans, suggesting an emerging age gap. Those in the bottom third of income distribution have consistently favored Democrats, while those in the top third have consistently favored Republicans. Overall, the political loyalty of social groups has become an important factor in the last few elections, with the Democratic Party relying on the loyalty of African Americans, Jewish voters, Latinos, women, and young people, and the Republican Party relying on the loyalty of older voters and those in the top third of income distribution.

5. Describe the key differences between presidential and congressional elections.

   1. The key differences between presidential and congressional elections come down to their respective advantages and disadvantages. Presidential elections are held every four years and feature a single candidate representing the nation as a whole. In contrast, congressional elections are held every two years and feature numerous candidates representing specific districts. Presidential candidates have the advantage of having the backing of a political party and its affiliated voters. This often leads to a so-called “on year surge” where supporters of the president’s party turn out to vote for the president and other candidates from the same party. However, in the absence of the president’s appeal, the party’s support often declines in off years. In contrast, congressional candidates have the advantage of incumbency, such as doing constituency service, claiming credit for projects in their district, name recognition, and more funding. This often leads to an overwhelming share of the vote (often more than 60%) for incumbents. Furthermore, congressional candidates have the advantage of representing specific districts and can tailor their campaigns to the specific needs of their constituents. In short, presidential elections tend to feature a single candidate representing the nation as a whole and benefit from a surge of support.

6. Summarize the history of campaign finance reform efforts, and explain the current state of campaign finance regulation.

   1. Campaign finance reform has been an issue since the Watergate scandal of the 1970s. In response, the federal government began offering matching funds to presidential candidates in the 1976 election. However many candidates chose to opt out, freeing them to spend as much money as they can raise privately. A law was created after Watergate to limit individual contributions to a candidate during any election to no more than $1,000. Political Action Committees (PACs) need at least 50 members to be able to donate to at least five federal candidates and are limited to no more than $5,000 to any candidate. These limits created two problems: independent expenditures and soft money. In 2002, the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act was passed to address these issues - banning soft money, raising the limit on individual contributions, and restricting independent expenditures. However, the Supreme Court's decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission changed the landscape once again. This decision overturned the ban on corporate and union independent expenditures, allowing the formation of Super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money. PACs, on the other hand, have strict limits on how much they can accept from any individual. In presidential elections, money is typically not an issue as candidates tend to have access to more funds than their congressional counterparts; however, in congressional elections, money matters more as challengers need money if they are to be competitive and the incumbent is typically better funded.

7. Describe how elections shape public policy.

   1. Elections have a profound impact on public policy. When a political party gains power, they tend to implement policies that favor their goals, which can be drastically different from the policies implemented by the previous party in power. This is why elections are so important as they can provide an opportunity for citizens to make their voices heard and to shape public policy according to their wants and needs. Elections have the power to drastically shape public policy, and they can be a way for individuals to make a real difference in their communities.

Winning the Nomination:

• Media coverage is an important factor, as candidates are usually unknown in the primaries

  • The candidate attracts media attention, which increases their name recognition.

  • Reporters and opponents investigate the candidate’s record more carefully

    • Can turn up negative aspects of a candidate’s past and lead to scrutiny.

• Momentum is an important factor. Winning once convinces voters that you can do it again.

• States want their primaries to “matter” so they start to front load the calendar (bring the primary dates earlier)

  • Parties have pushed back because this leads to a compressed timeline for the primaries

  • Benefits state parties, but harms voters because they have less time to learn about the candidates

How Does the Campaign Matter:

• Campaigns convince voters to select a particular candidate by assigning credit or blame to the state of the nation

  • If things are going well, the incumbent candidate tries to claim credit

  • If things are not going well, the challenger tries to pin the blame on the incumbent

• Retrospective vs Prospective voting:

  • Retrospective voting looks back on the previous administration and makes a judgment on whether they deserve another term in office.

    • Very strong, shows that fundamentals matter

  • Prospective voting looks to see if they think the candidate can have the best ideas for handling issues.

• Campaigns help voters understand why they should support their party's nominee - called activating voters’ latent partisanship.

  • Done through campaign appearances, advertisements, debates, etc.

  • Candidates stress the issues that appeal to, and activate, their partisans.

  • However, there can be defections, where partisans vote for the other party

    • Happens if voters are unhappy with their party’s stewardship of the nation

• Campaigns help voters judge the character of the candidates.

How Do Voters Learn About the Candidates:

• Campaign advertisements is one of the biggest expenses of campaigns

• Ads make an appeal to emotion and negative attacks

  • These ads have a larger effect on those who are the most informed and engaged with politics

  • Many assume negative ads are harmful, however they are typically more informative than positive ones

• Ads don’t seem to increase turnout very much, however they still shape people’s assessment of candidates

• Ads do not determine election outcomes.

• Two campaign events are particularly important to voters: nominating conventions and the presidential debates.

  • Candidate poll numbers go up following these events due to favorable coverage

  • The debates are the largest audience a candidate reaches during the campaign

    • Debates move opinion less than the conventions because they are later in the election season, where most voters already made a decision

Building a Winning Coalition:

• African Americans are the most loyal voters in the Democratic coalition

• Jewish voters are almost all solidly Democrat

• Most Latinos are democrats, however there are differences between Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans.

• Women and young people have become important Democrat constituents over time.

  • Older voters have begun to favor Republicans, suggesting an emerging age gap.

• Those in the bottom third of income distribution have consistent favored Democrats, while those in the top third have consistently favored Republicans.

Congressional Elections:

• Incumbents win with an overwhelming share of the vote (often more than 60%)

  • Incumbency advantage: doing constituency service, claiming credit for projects in their district, name recognition, and more funding.

• President’s party loses congressional seats in off years.

  • On year surge: supporters show up to vote for the president, but also other candidates from the same party

  • Off year decline: without the appeal of the president, many voters stay home and support for the party’s candidates declines

Campaign Finance: Regulating the Flow of Political Money

• Presidential candidates raise money from private citizens and interest groups

  • The federal government will provide matching funds.

  • System of public funding started with the 1976 election in response to Watergate, however more candidates have opted out.

    • By opting out, candidates are free to spend as much money as they can to raise privately.

• A new law was created after the Watergate scandal: individuals could not contribute more than $1k to a candidate during any election, but a substitute was created

  • PACs must have 50 members to give to at least five federal candidates, and cannot give more than $5k to any candidate.

  • Two problems produced by this law: independent expenditures and soft money.

• Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002 banned soft money, increased the limit on individual contributions, and restricted independent expenditures.

• After Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission, super PACs were born,

  • They can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, whereas PACs have strict limits on how much they can accept from any individual

• In presidential elections money is not typically an issue. However in congressional elections money matters more

  • Challengers need money if they are to be competitive