Population

What are the 3 most populated countries? (according to Census.gov)

How did the Industrial Revolution facilitate population growth?

Formed a middle class, raised living/health conditions for the poor

Demographic Transition

Sequence of four stages of a demographic shift in a country’s population. Most developed countries have completed the transition and developing countries are in the process of it.

Demographic Transition STAGE 1

high mortality rates / high birth rates - little to no population growth (pyramid population graph)

Demographic Transition STAGE 2

lower mortality rates / high birth rates - population begins rapid growth State of imbalance bc of population momentum

Demographic Transition STAGE 3

low mortality rates / lowering birth rates - population growth begins to decline.

• “When the mortality of children is not as high as it once was, parents adapt to the healthier environment and choose to have fewer children; the economy is undergoing structural changes that makes children less economically valuable; and as women gain more power within society and within partnerships they tend on average to have fewer children than before.” (Our World in Data)

• CBR begins to fall as children move from an economic benefit to a financial burden

Demographic Transition STAGE 4

low mortality rates / low birth rates - population growth slows down

Fewer young people and higher proportion of the elderly

Why do we have ignorance?

• Personal bias. We can’t comprehend the full extent of what is happening in the world because the way we grew up is not representative.

• Outdated worldviews in education. It’s so hard to keep teaching material up to date.

• News bias. Focus on what gets the most attention, and therefore the most money. 

  • SKEWED INFO plus our HUMAN INTUITION.

Hans Rosling’s “Rules of Thumb”

• Most things improve.

• One hump (most are in the middle).

• Social change before economic progress.

• We exaggerate things that scare us, that are unknown to us, that are confusing to us. 

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime. Sub-Saharan Africa’s TFR is higher than anywhere else in the world.

Population Momentum Effect

The reason a population will continue to grow even if the fertility rate is at or below replacement level fertility. 

Countries that decrease fertility at a slower rate will take even longer to stop growing.

→ The wider the base of the population pyramid, the more population momentum that country will experience.

Replacement Level Fertility

For developed countries:  2.1  [ US: 1.7 ]

For developing countries:  2.5

Sub Saharan Africa

• Region below the Sahara desert in Africa

• 49 countries

• Over a billion people

What are the three pillars countries like Bangladesh have used to improve their population outlook? What did this improve the country as a whole?

• Education

  • Improved women’s outlook: less women wanted to have kids (career focused), and later in life.

• Health care

  • Lowered child mortality: people could have less children, because they weren’t concerned about them dying.

• Contraceptives

  • Increased significantly.

    • Also changed the country’s demographics and economy.

    • Expected to go from status of “least-developed” to “developing”

Why hasn't the same thing happened everywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa?

• Education is improving more slowly in Africa. 

• Many Sub-Saharan nations have been under colonialism and suffered from unstable governments, civil wars, etc. Worse “starting point”.

• Cultural aspects cause talking about family planning to be difficult. 

4 billion people in this part of the world (by 2100) would be highly problematic for the entire world. What can be done?

• Building systems for education, family planning, and health care. 

  • Education leads to waiting longer to have children.

  • Universal access to contraception.

Summarize Malthusian theory

→ Overarching claim: food supply is the main limit to population growth (pessimistic)

↳ Human population increases geometrically (at an exponential rate), whereas food supply only increases arithmetically (at a constant rate)

● Due to the limited availability of new land

↳ A population can never increase beyond the amount of food required to

support it

→ “Checks”ofpopulationgrowththatpreventpopulationfromgrowingbeyondthe

amount of resources that exist to support it

↳ Food production (land use) can only increase to a certain extent, and

after this point, land overuse will lead to soil productivity, and food

production will then decline.

Limitation of Malthusian theory

Distribution of resources is not taken into consideration; while poorer populations may starve the richer populations will not. Additionally, our food supply does not increase at an arithmetic rate thanks to technological development.

Summarize Boserup’s theory

Overarching claim: Population growth will cause us to innovate better ways of food production to curb the increasing demand for food. (Optimistic and technocentric).

↳ As population increases, agricultural innovation will intensify, thus allowing the food production to increase alongside it.

Limitation of Boserup’s theory

Idea is based on a “closed” community and thus more difficult to replicate on the global scale, in which migration is so frequent from areas that are overpopulated.

■ Additionally, overpopulation may lead to unsustainable farming practices that would reverse food production growth, not necessarily leading to technological development.

As this increases, so does environmental impact

Affluence

Population inputs and outputs

Inputs: births and immigrations

Outputs: deaths and emigrations

• These are the 4 major factors that affect population

Global population growth rate

(CBR-CDR)/10

Urban area

Over 386 people per square km

Demographic transition

Dynamic changes as countries become industrialized

Important demographic terms:

• CBR

• CDR

• TFR

• DT

• NIR

• Crude birth rate

• Crude death rate

• Total fertility rate

• Doubling time

• Natural increase rate - the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate

What kind of growth curve is the global population on?

Global human population has followed a rapid growth curve but there is uncertainty as to how this may be changing in the future. Various statistics and projected human population growth estimates vary hugely at times

Effect of increasing population

Increased stress on the Earth’s systems

Influences on human population dynamics

Cultural, historical, religious, social, political and economic factors, national and international development policies

How do fertility rates affect population growth?

Fertility rates higher than 2.0 result in population increase, while lower than 2.0 results in population decrease — the 2 parents should be replaced by 2 children to maintain a stable population

When do populations remain stable?

Populations remain stable when the death rate and the birth rate are equal: there is no net gain

Other factors to be considered: wealth of a population, resources desire, and resource need

Why do people have large families?

• High infant/childhood mortality

• Security in old age

• Children are an economic asset

• Status of women

• Unavailability of contraceptives

Ways to reduce family size

• Provide education

• Improve healthcare

• Improve access to contraceptives

• Enhance income

• Improve resource management

Demographics

the study of the dynamics of population change

Exponential (population growth)

The population follows an accelerating rate of growth, which is proportionate to size (for example: 2-4, 4-8, 8-16)

Human Development Index (HDI)

A measure of well being of a country. It combines measures of health, life expectancy, wealth, education and domestic product (GDP). Think LEDC AND MEDC, First, Second, Third, Forth World countries etc.

Demography

The study of statistical characteristics of human population, such as size, sex composition, and changes over time with variations, birth and death rates