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ChAPTER 41 -- Part 10: Globalization and Resistance
Regional conflicts were caused by religious differences.
Ethnic rivalries in the former Yugoslavia were complicated by Catholic, Serbian Orthodox, and Muslim differences.
There were battles between Muslims and Christians in Indonesia and the Sudan, as well as battles between Hindus and Muslims in India.
Tensions between Israel and Lebanon were caused by Judaism and Islam.
Middle Eastern instability was caused by conflicts between Sunnis and Shi tes within Islam.
Patterns of tolerance were strained in many areas.
The terrorism was aimed against globalization.
Most of the religious movements were not terroristic, but were defined by their opposition to globalization.
The Taliban in Afghanistan were viewed as crude and excessive by many Iranian religious leaders who were eager to support religious law.
Secular regimes in the Middle East were more important to religious leaders than global ones.
Alternative identities and standards were provided by fundamentalists.
Many societies debated about what kind of future people should strive for.
In the 21st century, there were two faces of globalization, one in the United States and the other in the Arab world.
Corporations located regional offices there were similar to the citizens of Dubai.
The city was very hot and very humid.
There is an obvious side to the march of gleaming city centers in protest.
There was more than one face.
The immigrants from Pakistan, Palestine and other places built the global economy.
The picture shows that the Philippines had low pay.
Both sides had few citizens.
Human beings want to know what the future holds.
Various societies looked to the stars for predictions, and astrology still has partisans in the contemporary world.
Many Chinese scholars developed a cyclical approach to believing in cycles, which predicted the future would repeat patterns seen in the past.
Other societies think the future will be the same as the past, but Western culture believes in progress.
History shows the futility of many forecasting efforts.
Over half of the expert forecasts made in the United States since World War II have been wrong.
By 2000 most Americans would be riding to and from work in a airship, or that families would be replaced by promiscuous communes, according to predictions.
History can provide the basis for thinking about the future.
The assessment of trends that are likely to continue for several decades is the most obvious connection between history and the future.
We know that global population growth will slow down because it is already slowing.
There are many forecasts that show stabilization by the year 2050.
The percentage of older citizens will increase as populations become older.
This is already happening in western Europe, the United States, and Japan as birth rates decline.
We don't know how societies will respond to the demands of older people or how the environment will change when the global population increases.
Unexpected events, like wars, can throw off trend-based forecasts.
The experts were wrong for at least two decades when they said that the American birth rate would fall because it was already falling.
The rise of Chinese or Indian economic power in coming decades builds on existing trends.
When the trends are fragile, trend-based forecasting is even more difficult.
The late 20th century saw a genuine global spread of democracy.
Predicting the triumph of this form of government was possible.
It was difficult to be sure that democracies were secure in parts of Latin America.
The hold of earlier, less democratic political traditions or the pressure of economic stagnation might cause the trend to be overthrown.
Forecasting is difficult when there are two different trends.
The 20th century saw a rise in consumerism, which spread to all parts of the world.
Mass media, sports, and global fashions appeal across traditional boundaries.
The last 30 years have seen an increase in religious interest in many parts of the world.
Some people participate in both trends, but their priorities are different.
The world's future has been looked at in terms of stark departures from its past by some analysts.
They argue that trend analysis isn't adequate because we are on the verge of a major shift in framework.
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