10 -- Part 9: THE AMERICAN LEGAL SYSTEM AND THE COURTS
I used to play poker mostly online.
The Republican Congress passed a law that made online poker illegal, but it was not very effective.
The game was affected by the fact that you can play poker, but you can't deposit money in and out.
Obama was running.
He says that it was cool.
Silver started a website called fiverthirtyeight.com after he started a website called Daily Kos.
Silver said that other analysts didn't have a model that aggregated the existing polling and ran simulations of the various primary and general election races.
Soon Silver's readership soared and he was on cable TV analyzing polls and races, because his predictions were uncannily accurate.
After signing a three-year contract with the New York Times, Silver left to start his own website, fivethirtyeight.com.
He frequently writes about politics and elections, with occasional entries into sports, economics, and popular culture.
The Signal and the Noise is a book he wrote.
People have to be willing to work.
There are more things to be done in a complicated world with so many people.
Nobody else has an idea that you can come up with.
It happens all the time.
If you want to be a producer, quit being a consumer.
Start your own political organization.
A number of opinion studies are presented as polls.
These pseudo-polls are more deceptive than helpful.
It is possible for respondents to select themselves into a survey rather than being randomly chosen.
Some examples of self-selection polls are viewer or listener polls.
Only a portion of the media outlet's audience who care enough to call in or click a mouse are shown in the polls.
When CNN asks users to record their views on a current issue, the audience is limited to those who own or have access to computers, those who care enough about the news to be on the CNN site, and those who want to pause.
Individuals can record multiple votes to make the count seem greater than it is.
It is likely that the results of the polls are not representative of the population as a whole.
They should be presented with caution and skepticism.
Another form of pseudo-poll is the poses as a legitimate information-seeking effort but is really a shady campaign trick to change people's attitudes.
Push polls present false or highly negative information and ask respondents to react to it.
The information presented can raise doubts about a candidate and change a voter's opinion about him or her.
Push questions are used on a limited basis by pollsters and campaign strategists to find out how voters might respond to negative information about the candidate or the opposition.
This kind of information can be gathered in a benchmark poll.
Consultants working for both political parties sometimes use the format as a means of propaganda.
If you knew that Gov.
Buddy MacKay was the lieutenant Gov.
It was false to say that MacKay had such plans.
The goal of the "poll" was to plant negative information in the minds of thousands of people.
By posing as a legitimate poll, the push poll tries to trick respondents into believing the information is true.
The opponents of the person being asked about are often the sponsors of such polls.
The target candidate can't rebut the lies or halftruths because push polls frequently pop up the weekend before an election.
Push polls try to call as many voters as they can with little regard to the quality of a legitimate sample.
Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based pollster, said that push polling is marketing.
You can tell them something that may or may not be true by calling them.
Legislation against push polling has been introduced in several state legislatures, and the practice has been condemned by the American Association of Political Consultants.
A final category of polls are those conducted by social scientists not so much to gauge and measure public opinion about elections or current events as to deepen our understanding of public attitudes, especially on controversial issues such as race, gender, and civil liberties, where respondents know what the socially acceptable answers to the The survey questions are manipulated in order to get respondents to give more information than they think they are giving.
The study of racial attitudes in which researchers sought to find out if the way a question is framed affects how respondents feel about a particular group is a pioneer example of such work.
Researchers wondered if the mention of affirmative action would change people's attitudes towards African Americans.
A sample of white respondents were put into two groups, a control group that was only asked a question about their feelings toward blacks, and a group that first was asked about their view of affirmative action and then their attitude toward blacks.
The mere mention of affirmative action excited more negative responses toward blacks in the second group, 66 which helped researchers to understand the complex sets of issues that lie behind racial attitudes in American public opinion and told them something about the impact of framing on racial attitudes.