The Epidemiological Transition and Malthusian Theory (Geography)

The Epidemiological Transition and Malthusian Theory

The Malthusian Theory

What is it?

• The Malthusian theory is a theory created by Thomas Malthus. He claimed that the population of humans was growing at a much faster rate than the production of crops needed for food.
• He claimed that this was because populations were growing geometrically while food supply was growing arithmetically.
• He thought that the only way to prevent this food shortage from occurring was either if the CBR decreased or the CDR increased.
• According to the scale he was suggesting, if in 2000 there were 1 billion people to 1 billion tons of grain, then in 2100 there would be 5 billion people to 2 billion tons of grain.

Malthus’ Critics

• People felt that there were many issues with Malthus’ claims, such as inconsistencies regarding both resources and population aspects of his theory.
• They thought that since the world’s resource supply constantly expands rather than staying the same, his theory didn’t really come together properly
• Critics were assuring that a population increase would lead to a better economy, in turn improving and increasing the food production.
• They were basically iterating that more people would equal a better society, as long as people made the effort to share resources evenly.

Neo-Malthusians

• Neo Malthusians are people who agreed with Malthus. In fact, they were suggesting that the situation may be even more devastating than what Malthus anticipated.
• In less developed countries, there is an even higher gap between food production and people because of high populations
• This overpopulation is not just costing people food, but it’s also costing us land and energy

Reality

• The theory overall was proven to be quite incorrect. The human population has definitely gotten much higher, but food production has been increasing since 1950.
• Food production increased, and the majority of food-related problems today are a result of a lack of money and a stable economy rather than a lack of food

Epidemiological Transition

The epidemiological transition shows the distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition.

• Stage 1- pestilence and famine

• High CDR

• Most deaths are caused by diseases and accidents 
• Malthus called them “natural checks”
• The worst stage one epidemic was the Bubonic Plague
• About half of Europe’s population dies because of this disease

• Stage 2- receding pandemics

• Rapidly Declining CDR

• A pandemic happens when a disease affects many people crossing the globe
• Pandemics decline when sanitation and medicine improve
• Today we have computer systems to track diseases for us, but the idea to even consider tracking a disease came from Dr. John Snow
• To fight the Cholera Pandemic, he created two maps, one that showed affected people’s addresses, and one that showed water pumps. This way, he proves that the cause for Cholera in poorer areas was due to low quality water.

• Stage 3- degenerative diseases

• Moderately declining diseases

• This is when human made diseases come into play, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancer
• Sub Saharan has the least amount of cancer cases due to life expectancy being so low

• Stage 4- delayed degenerative diseases

• Low but increasing CDR

• Life expectancy can be extended because of modern medical advancements
• Healthier eating can also prevent diseases

Possible stage 5

Evolution

Infectious diseases evolve, causing us to need new advancements.

Poverty

Poverty causes places to be unsanitary, so they are more prone to diseases.

Increases Connections

Vehicles can help people go to different areas locally faster.

Airplanes help people go to other countries easily.

When people travel, they either get exposed to or bring the disease with them.