Lam 2011, How the World Survived the Population Bomb
Introduction
World population projection in 2011: 7 billion
Challenges:
Global warming
Rapid increase in food prices
Extreme poverty
Important authors:
Malthus
William Godwin
William Stanley Jevons
Concerns About Population in the 1960s
1960: population = 3 billion
Unprecedented rate of population growth
Led to concerns about population growth
How Unusual Was the Demography of the 1960s?
Doubling times
1960-1999: 39 years
Previous doubling time was 70 years!
Projection: increase of 33% in the next 39 years
World population growth rate will approach 0 by 2100
The world population growth will never double again in 40 years → 1960-2000 = unique experience in history!
Population growth rates
Why Was the Demography of the 1960s so Unusual?
Cause: demographic transition
Eg: South East Asia, Latin America
CDRs are leveling off/rising in countries advanced in the demographic transition → population aging
Changes in age structure
Three Big Concerns of the 1960s
Food Production
Population will grow faster than food production, leading to starvation
Not the case!
India
Sub-Saharan Africa: record for food production
Resource Depletion
Rapid population growth would cause depletion of essential nonrenewable resources
Julian Simon
Human ingenuity
Important nonrenewable resources cost the same today as 50 years ago
Food prices
Energy prices
Non-energy prices more than doubled since 2000
Price of non-energy commodities fell almost 50%
Poverty
Rapid population growth would lead to increased poverty in low-income countries
Decline of population in poverty from 1981-2005 → China
Varies by region
Decline in the absolute number in poverty
How Did We Survive?
Economic Factors
Market Responses
Food production in Vietnam
Market liberalization reforms *Market reforms in China, India…
Innovation
Innovation in agriculture
Norman Borlaug - Green Revolution
Increased yields
Yields have leveled off since 1990
Technological advances
Boserup effect
Globalization
Increased production + distribution
India
Demographic Factors
Urbanization
Increase of people living in urban areas
Rural-urban migration
Fertility decline
Decline in the world fertility rate
Variability in regions
Why Did Fertility Fall so Rapidly?
Rapid declines in infant/child mortality
Access to family planning programs
Access to contraceptive
Income, wages, education, and employment opportunities for women
Bangladesh vs. Brazil
Investment in children
Increases in education
Thailand, Brazil, Kenya
Why Did Schooling Increase so Rapidly?
South Africa
Declining family size
The transition from Quantity to Quality
Having small families + making large investments in their children
Brazil
How We Really Survived?
Global Warming and Pollution
No market mechanisms to punish polluters
Sulfur dioxide emissions decreased
Massive reductions in chlorofluorocarbons
Are Consumption Levels Sustainable?
Increase in consumption levels
Lam 2011, How the World Survived the Population Bomb
Introduction
World population projection in 2011: 7 billion
Challenges:
Global warming
Rapid increase in food prices
Extreme poverty
Important authors:
Malthus
William Godwin
William Stanley Jevons
Concerns About Population in the 1960s
1960: population = 3 billion
Unprecedented rate of population growth
Led to concerns about population growth
How Unusual Was the Demography of the 1960s?
Doubling times
1960-1999: 39 years
Previous doubling time was 70 years!
Projection: increase of 33% in the next 39 years
World population growth rate will approach 0 by 2100
The world population growth will never double again in 40 years → 1960-2000 = unique experience in history!
Population growth rates
Why Was the Demography of the 1960s so Unusual?
Cause: demographic transition
Eg: South East Asia, Latin America
CDRs are leveling off/rising in countries advanced in the demographic transition → population aging
Changes in age structure
Three Big Concerns of the 1960s
Food Production
Population will grow faster than food production, leading to starvation
Not the case!
India
Sub-Saharan Africa: record for food production
Resource Depletion
Rapid population growth would cause depletion of essential nonrenewable resources
Julian Simon
Human ingenuity
Important nonrenewable resources cost the same today as 50 years ago
Food prices
Energy prices
Non-energy prices more than doubled since 2000
Price of non-energy commodities fell almost 50%
Poverty
Rapid population growth would lead to increased poverty in low-income countries
Decline of population in poverty from 1981-2005 → China
Varies by region
Decline in the absolute number in poverty
How Did We Survive?
Economic Factors
Market Responses
Food production in Vietnam
Market liberalization reforms *Market reforms in China, India…
Innovation
Innovation in agriculture
Norman Borlaug - Green Revolution
Increased yields
Yields have leveled off since 1990
Technological advances
Boserup effect
Globalization
Increased production + distribution
India
Demographic Factors
Urbanization
Increase of people living in urban areas
Rural-urban migration
Fertility decline
Decline in the world fertility rate
Variability in regions
Why Did Fertility Fall so Rapidly?
Rapid declines in infant/child mortality
Access to family planning programs
Access to contraceptive
Income, wages, education, and employment opportunities for women
Bangladesh vs. Brazil
Investment in children
Increases in education
Thailand, Brazil, Kenya
Why Did Schooling Increase so Rapidly?
South Africa
Declining family size
The transition from Quantity to Quality
Having small families + making large investments in their children
Brazil
How We Really Survived?
Global Warming and Pollution
No market mechanisms to punish polluters
Sulfur dioxide emissions decreased
Massive reductions in chlorofluorocarbons
Are Consumption Levels Sustainable?
Increase in consumption levels