diplomacy
models of decision making
developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)
(mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions
RAM: rational actor model — realism
states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state
states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions
states have perfect information on what’s going on
OPM: organizational process model
multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level
SOPs — standard operating procedures
resistant to change
not universal, can cause confusion
BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism
aka pluralist model
lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels
backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages
group dynamics and negotiation
groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility
spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular
satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers
case study: US and Taiwan
the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan
kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs
one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time
china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway
models of decision making
developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)
(mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions
RAM: rational actor model — realism
states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state
states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions
states have perfect information on what’s going on
OPM: organizational process model
multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level
SOPs — standard operating procedures
resistant to change
not universal, can cause confusion
BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism
aka pluralist model
lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels
backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages
group dynamics and negotiation
groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility
spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular
satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers
case study: US and Taiwan
the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan
kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs
one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time
china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway