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diplomacy

models of decision making

developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)

  • (mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions

RAM: rational actor model — realism

  • states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state

  • states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions

  • states have perfect information on what’s going on

OPM: organizational process model

  • multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level

  • SOPs — standard operating procedures

    • resistant to change

    • not universal, can cause confusion

BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism

  • aka pluralist model

  • lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels

  • backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages

group dynamics and negotiation

  • groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility

  • spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular

  • satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers

case study: US and Taiwan

  • the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan

  • kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs

    • one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time

    • china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway

models of decision making

developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)

  • (mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions

RAM: rational actor model — realism

  • states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state

  • states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions

  • states have perfect information on what’s going on

OPM: organizational process model

  • multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level

  • SOPs — standard operating procedures

    • resistant to change

    • not universal, can cause confusion

BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism

  • aka pluralist model

  • lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels

  • backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages

group dynamics and negotiation

  • groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility

  • spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular

  • satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers

case study: US and Taiwan

  • the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan

  • kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs

    • one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time

    • china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway