Financial statements

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Cash is King

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1

Cash is King

Phrase emphasizing the critical importance of cash flow in business operations

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Importance of cash

  • Covers expenses

  • pays off debts

  • supports during economic downturns

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Cash flow management

  • monitoring inflows and outflows

  • forecasting cash needs

  • maintaining adequate reserves

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Why cash matters

  • smooth functioning of business

  • sustainability and growth

  • ability to withstand unforeseen circumstances

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5

Working capital management

the process of managing a company’s short-term assets and liabilities to ensure efficient operations and liquidity

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Components of working capital

  • current assets e.g., cash, inventory, accounts receivables

  • current liabilities e.g., accounts payable, short-term debt

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Objective of working capital management

To optimize the balance between liquidity and profitability by ensuring that the company has enough short-term assets to cover short-term liabilities without excessive idle funds.

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Strategies for working capital management

  • inventory management

  • Accounts receivable management

  • Accounts payable management

  • Cash flow forecasting

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Benefits of effective working capital management

  • improved cash flow

  • Enhanced liquidity

  • Reduced financing costs

  • Better ability to seize opportunities and withstand financial shocks

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10

Positive net working capital

company has enough short term assets to cover its short term liabilities

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11

Negative working capital

potential liquidity issues

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Investment : Company takes large new attractive new investment projects

  • finance : company needs to raise finance

  • Dividends : Cuts may be needed to increase internal financing if external sources not available

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Dividends : company decides to pay higher level of dividends

  • finance : lower levels of retained earning available for investment have to find external sources

  • investment : if finance not available may have to postpone future investments projects

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Finance : company finances itself using ,more expensive sources resulting high cost of capital

  • investment : the number of attractive projects to the company decreases

  • dividends : company’s ability to pay dividends in the future will be adversely affected

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15

(EMH) Weak Form Efficiency

A form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggesting that all past market prices and trading data are fully reflected in stock prices.

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(EMH) Key Points of EMH

  • Investors cannot consistently achieve above-average returns by analyzing past stock prices.

  • Technical analysis, based on historical price movements, is not effective in predicting future prices

  • Weak form efficiency implies that neither fundamental nor technical analysis alone can provide an advantage in stock selection.

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Implications of Weak form of efficiency

  • Investors cannot gain an edge through historical price analysis alone.

  • The random walk theory suggests that stock prices follow a random pattern, making short-term prediction difficult.

  • Efficient markets quickly incorporate new information into stock prices, making it challenging to outperform the market consistently

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Criticism of Weak form efficiency

  • Critics argue that anomalies and market inefficiencies exist, challenging the idea of weak form efficiency.

  • Behavioral finance theories suggest that investor sentiment and irrational behavior can influence stock prices, contradicting the notion of fully reflecting all past information

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Application of Weak form efficiency

  • investors may focus on other forms of analysis such as fundamental analysis to identify undervalued or overvalued stocks

  • Passive investing strategies, such as index funds, align with weak form efficiency by accepting market prices as fair and efficient.

  • Market participants may still seek informational advantages through research, despite the limitations of historical price data.

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Weak form of Efficiency presented as

Pt = Pt-1 +

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Semi-Strong Efficiency

A form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggesting that all publicly available information is fully reflected in stock prices.

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Key points for semi strong efficiency

  • Market prices adjust rapidly and accurately to new information, making it difficult for investors to consistently outperform the market

  • Fundamental analysis, based on public information like financial statements and economic data, is not sufficient to achieve above-average returns.

  • Semi-strong efficiency implies that even insider information cannot consistently generate abnormal returns, as it is quickly reflected in stock prices upon becoming public.

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Implication of semi strong efficiency

  • Investors cannot gain an advantage by analyzing publicly available information alone.

  • Efficient markets lead to fair and unbiased stock prices, reflecting all available information.

  • Active investment strategies, such as stock picking and timing the market based on public news, are generally ineffective in the long term.

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Criticism of semi strong efficiency

  • Critics argue that anomalies and inefficiencies exist, challenging the idea of semi-strong efficiency.

  • Behavioral finance theories suggest that investor sentiment and cognitive biases can lead to mispricing, undermining market efficiency.

  • Event studies and empirical evidence occasionally demonstrate delayed or incomplete price adjustments to public information, raising questions about market efficiency.

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Application for semi strong efficiency

  • Investors may focus on other forms of analysis, such as technical analysis or sentiment analysis, to complement fundamental analysis in their decision-making process.

  • Passive investing strategies, such as index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), align with semi-strong efficiency by accepting market prices as fair and efficient.

  • Market participants may still seek informational advantages through proprietary research or specialized knowledge, even though public information is quickly reflected in stock prices.

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Strong Form Efficiency

A form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggesting that all information, both public and private, is fully reflected in stock prices.

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Key points of strong form of efficiency

  • Market prices adjust rapidly and accurately to all available information, including insider information.

  • Investors cannot consistently achieve above-average returns, even with access to private or insider information.

  • Strong form efficiency implies that no individual or entity can consistently outperform the market, as all information is already reflected in stock prices.

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Implications of strong form efficiency

  • Investors cannot gain an advantage through any type of information, whether public or private.

  • Strong form efficiency leads to fair and unbiased stock prices, reflecting all available information, including insider knowledge.

  • Insider trading is considered illegal in many jurisdictions because strong form efficiency suggests that insider information provides no advantage in the market

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Criticisms of strong form of efficiency

  • Critics argue that anomalies and inefficiencies exist, challenging the idea of strong form efficiency.

  • Empirical evidence occasionally demonstrates instances where market prices do not fully reflect private or insider information, suggesting potential limitations to strong form efficiency.

  • Behavioral finance theories suggest that cognitive biases and market sentiment can lead to mispricing, undermining the efficiency of stock prices.

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Application of strong form of efficiency

  • Investors may focus on passive investment strategies, such as index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which accept market prices as fair and efficient.

  • Market participants may still seek informational advantages through proprietary research or specialized knowledge, despite the limitations of strong form efficiency.

  • Regulatory bodies monitor and enforce laws against insider trading to maintain confidence in market integrity and fairness.

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Abnormal rate of return

A measure used in finance to assess the performance of an investment relative to its expected return, typically adjusted for risk.

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Formula abnormal rate of return

Actual Return - Expected Return

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Key points of abnormal rate of return

  • Actual return refers to the realized return earned on an investment over a specific period.

  • Expected return represents the anticipated return based on factors such as market conditions, asset characteristics, and risk.

  • A positive abnormal rate of return indicates that the investment outperformed expectations, while a negative abnormal rate of return suggests underperformance.

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Interpretation of abnormal rate of return

  • Positive abnormal returns may indicate skilled investment management, superior analysis, or the exploitation of market inefficiencies.

  • Negative abnormal returns may suggest poor investment decisions, unforeseen risks, or market downturns.

  • Abnormal returns are often used to evaluate the effectiveness of investment strategies and to assess the performance of investment managers or financial analysts

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Application of abnormal rate of return

  • Investors and analysts use abnormal returns to evaluate the success of investment decisions and to compare the performance of different investment opportunities.

  • Portfolio managers may strive to generate positive abnormal returns by identifying undervalued securities, timing market movements, or employing active trading strategies.

  • Researchers and academics use abnormal returns to study market efficiency, asset pricing models, and the impact of information on investment outcomes

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(Excel Functions)

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(Excel Functions)

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(Excel Functions)

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Equity

Assets - Liabilities

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DuPont formula (ROE)

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DuPont Analysis

Uses the relationship among financial statement accounts to decompose a return into components

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Three Factors of DuPont analysis

  • financial leverage : capital structure

  • total asset turnover : measure efficiency

  • net profit margin : profitability

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(Profitability) Gross profit margin

Gross Profit / total revenue

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(Profitability) Net profit margin

Operating profit (PBIT) / total revenue

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(Profitability) post tax profit margin

net profit / total revenue

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(Profitability Returns) operating return on asset

operating profit / total assets

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(Profitability Returns) ROCE

operating profit / capital employed

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(Profitability Returns) Capital employed

total assets - current liabilities

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(Profitability Returns) ROA

net profit / total assets

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(Profitability Returns) ROE

net profit / equity

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(Liquidity) Current ratio

current assets / current liabilities

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(Liquidity) quick ratio

current asset - inventory / current liabilities

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(Liquidity) cash ratio

cash + short term investments / current liabilities

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(Efficiency ratios) inventory turnover period

( Inventory / cost of sales ) X 365

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(Efficiency ratios) receivable collection period

( receivable / revenue ) X 365

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(Efficiency ratios) payables payment period

( account payable / cost of sales ) X 365

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Operating cycle

inventory turnover period + receivable collection period

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Cash cycle

operating cycle - payables payment period

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( Solvency ) Debt ratio

total debts / total assets

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( Solvency ) debt to equity ratio

total debts / total equity

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( Solvency ) Gearing

long term debts / capital employed

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( Solvency ) financial leverage

total assets / total equity

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( Solvency ) interest cover

PBIT / interest

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( Earnings ) Earnings per share

Net income / number of ordinary shares

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( Earnings ) Book value per share

shareholders equity - preferred shares / number of shares

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( Dividends ) dividends per share

dividend paid to shareholders / number of ordinary shares

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( Dividends ) dividend payout ratio

dividend paid to shareholders / net income

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( Dividends ) Plowback ratio

1 - dividend ratio

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(Excel Functions) Future Value

The value of an investment at a specified future date, based on a certain interest rate or rate of return

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(Excel Functions) Formula of Future Value

Back: FV = PV × (1 + r)^n

Where: FV = Future Value PV = Present Value r = Interest rate or rate of return n = Number of periods

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(Excel Functions) Present Value

The current value of a future sum of money, discounted at a certain interest rate to reflect its current worth

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(Excel Functions) Formula for Present value

PV = FV / (1 + r)^n

Where: PV = Present Value FV = Future Value r = Interest rate or discount rate n = Number of periods

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(Excel Function) Net Present Value

The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows over a period of time, used in capital budgeting to evaluate investment projects.

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(Excel Functions) Formula for net present value

NPV = Σ [(Cash inflow / (1 + r)^n) - Cash outflow]

Where: NPV = Net Present Value r = Discount rate n = Number of periods

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(Excel Function) payment PMT

The periodic payment made in an annuity or loan, consisting of both principal and interest.

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(Excel Function) Number of Periods (NPER or MPER)

The total number of payment periods in an annuity or loan

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Valuing Irredeemable instruments

  • An infinite series of periodic payments of a constant amount, typically representing a stream of income that continues indefinitely

  • Irredeemable instruments, also known as perpetuities, are financial securities that pay a fixed amount of interest indefinitely

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Formula for Perpetuity

Perpetuity = Payment / Interest rate

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Key points for valuing irredeemable instruments

  • Perpetuities offer fixed interest payments without a maturity date.

  • The present value of a perpetuity is calculated by dividing the payment by the interest rate.

  • Irredeemable instruments are commonly used in certain types of preferred stocks and government securities.

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81

Valuing Fixed Interest Bonds

Fixed interest bonds are debt securities that pay a fixed rate of interest until maturity, at which point the principal is repaid.

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(Excel Function) Formula for Present value or Fixed Interest Bond

PV = Σ [(C / (1 + r)^n) + (F / (1 + r)^n)]

Where: PV = Present value C = Periodic interest payment r = Discount rate n = Number of periods F = Face value or principal

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Key points for Value of fixed interest bond

  • Fixed interest bonds have a fixed coupon rate and maturity date.

  • The present value of a fixed interest bond is calculated by discounting the future cash flows (interest payments and principal repayment) to their present value.

  • The discount rate used is typically the yield to maturity (YTM), representing the market's required rate of return for the bond.

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Bond Concept

A debt instrument issued by governments, municipalities, corporations, or other entities to raise capital, typically consisting of fixed interest payments and a repayment of the principal amount at maturity.

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Key Features of Bond concept

  • Fixed interest rate (coupon rate)

  • Maturity date

  • Face value (par value)

  • Issuer (government, corporation, municipality)

  • Credit rating

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Coupon Rate

The fixed annual interest rate paid by the bond issuer to the bondholder, expressed as a percentage of the bond's face value

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Maturity Date

The date on which the bond issuer repays the principal amount to the bondholder, marking the end of the bond's term

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Face Value (Par Value)

The nominal value of the bond, which represents the amount repaid to the bondholder at maturity. It is typically $1,000 for corporate bonds and government bonds

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Issuer

The entity that issues the bond to raise capital, such as governments, corporations, municipalities, or government-sponsored enterprises.

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Credit Rating

An assessment of the issuer's creditworthiness, indicating the likelihood of timely repayment of interest and principal

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Yield

he return earned on a bond, calculated as the annual interest payments divided by the bond's current market price. It represents the bond's effective interest rate

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Valuing Convertible Debt

Depends on conversion value Po (1 + g)n R

  • the conversion ratio R

  • the current share price Po

  • share price growth rate g

  • the time to maturity or conversion n

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Straight debt

Principle amount + Interest

  • Principal Amount: The initial amount borrowed or the face value of the debt.

  • Interest: The total interest payments over the life of the debt, calculated as Principal×Interest Rate×Time PeriodPrincipal×Interest Rate×Time Period.

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Valuing Shares

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Gordon Growth model

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Straight Line depreciation

Method allocating equal depreciation amounts to each period of an asset's useful life

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Useful Life

Period over which an asset is expected to be used, determining the duration of depreciation calculations

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Depreciation rate calculation

Convert depreciation percentage to a decimal by dividing by 100

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Depreciation Rate Formula

Depreciation Rate = (Depreciation Percentage) / 100

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Expense calculation

Multiply depreciation rate by initial cost or book value of the asset

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